As things stand if we get 2 points per game over our final 14 games there’s a 1 in 3 chance we get automatic promotion. That would require 8 wins, 4 draws and allow 2 losses. Tiny increases in the points rate do a lot to improve those chances (2.07ppg = 1 in 2, 2.14 = 2 in 3, 2.21 = 3 in 4).
Meanwhile 1.4 points per game is enough to have a strong shout at playoffs (73 points is probably enough this year) and get in them 6 of 10 times, that’s 5 wins 5 draws 2 losses, or 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses. Again small increases in points per game drastically increase our chances of making the play offs. (1.5ppg = 8 in 10, 1.57ppg = 9 in 10, 1.64 = 95 in 100, 1.71 = 99 in 100, 1.79 = almost guaranteed).
Our current season’s PPG is 1.66 currently. Keep that up and we are almost certainly going to make the playoffs and 99 times out of 100 won’t make the automatics.
Our last 5 games we got 2.6 ppg (keep that up and we are definitely automatically promoted, probably champions).
Last 10 is 1.6ppg (95% chance of playoffs)
Last 14 is 1.57ppg (90% chance of playoffs)
Long story short, if we can keep up our long term form we can make the playoffs. If we can keep up our short term form we really could make automatics. It’s all to play for!