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Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

California_PNE said:
Lot of people hoping for Sweden to basically fail badly and also they're always compared to their 'nordic' neighbors by the lockdowners. Interesting.
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I don't understand it, to be honest - maybe, in a year, we will be able to look back and say that Sweden messed up. Or, we might be able to say that they were shrewd.

Comparing countries is very difficult, as we have discussed many times before - and we won't know the damage caused by this virus/lockdown for months and even years, once we have taken into account all of the excess deaths and effects on quality of life and even lifespan.

Just as an example, I read today that uptake of MMR vaccines in the UK (and in other countries) has dropped due to fear of the virus. That's very worrying and could show people that herd immunity really is important! :D
 
California_PNE said:
Lot of people hoping for Sweden to basically fail badly and also they're always compared to their 'nordic' neighbors by the lockdowners. Interesting.
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Well it certainly hasn't been the raging success that was being touted a few weeks ago. Their shielding of the elderly has been piss poor.
 
PNEESSEX said:
Well it certainly hasn't been the raging success that was being touted a few weeks ago. Their shielding of the elderly has been piss poor.
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Which they have admitted - that was not good enough.

No doubt some have touted it as a raging success - just as some argue that it is a complete failure. The reality is that nobody really knows and will not for a long time. And thus we have the polarisation that seems to plague most debates in the modern media age.
 
Sepp Blatter said:
Which they have admitted - that was not good enough.

No doubt some have touted it as a raging success - just as some argue that it is a complete failure. The reality is that nobody really knows and will not for a long time. And thus we have the polarisation that seems to plague most debates in the modern media age.
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Whether the final outcome will be better/worse/the same is in the lap of the gods. If I were a betting man, Id imagine that in 12 months time Sweden will be little different to other comparable countries.
 
PNEESSEX said:
Whether the final outcome will be better/worse/the same is in the lap of the gods. If I were a betting man, Id imagine that in 12 months time Sweden will be little different to other comparable countries.
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That is exactly my line of thinking - once everything is taken into account, including the economic damage, psychological issues, potential future waves, deaths from other causes etc., I suspect that there really will be little difference. Until then, we have months of Twitter shitstorms and righteous social media outrage (from both sides) to look forward to :D
 
Sepp Blatter said:
That popped up in my notifications today - it's now on my watchlist to listen to when I feed the cats tomorrow morning.
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Good sepp, she's very considered and thoughtful as all these interviews have been, but she's less inclined to make bold statements and huge predictions. Most nuanced and complex position I've heard discussed to date, questions a few of the wisdoms that surround coronamania. Gives the libertarian argument against lockdown a bit of a hastener too 🙂 ; won't spoil it. Some really interesting points regarding immunity, how it's built up in populations and how essential it is to everyday life. But the most striking part for me was how she talked about the dangers of lockdown to various populations.

Maybe time for a poll be interesting to gauge where people are on continuing lockdown or not.
 
Independent SAGE are meeting again today at midday. In advance, they’ve said their modelling shows delaying schools reopening by two weeks halves the risk to children - which is interesting because the government have released absolutely no modelling.

www.tes.com

1 June ‘too soon’ to open schools, say top scientists

Risk would be halved if return to school delayed by a fortnight, ‘Independent Sage’ committee concludes
www.tes.com www.tes.com

 
California_PNE said:
Good sepp, she's very considered and thoughtful as all these interviews have been, but she's less inclined to make bold statements and huge predictions. Most nuanced and complex position I've heard discussed to date, questions a few of the wisdoms that surround coronamania. Gives the libertarian argument against lockdown a bit of a hastener too 🙂 ; won't spoil it. Some really interesting points regarding immunity, how it's built up in populations and how essential it is to everyday life. But the most striking part for me was how she talked about the dangers of lockdown to various populations.

Maybe time for a poll be interesting to gauge where people are on continuing lockdown or not.
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A very interesting interview - the part where she complained that people dismissed her arguments by lumping it in with politics made me smile. That's one of the reasons why we eventually set up this thread - so that we could discuss things without being labelled eugenicists or right wingers by people seeking to politicise everything.

She made an interesting argument that R numbers are very misleading at the moment, and that the number of cases should not be relied upon as a measure.

I was very intrigued by her views that not everybody exposed to the virus may produce antibodies, due to genetic resistance/the immune system handling it without antibodies, or that some may have partial resistance from antibodies developed against other coronaviruses. Definitely worth looking into.

Have no idea if her views will prove to be right or wrong, but it's good to see an alternative viewpoint in the research. Makes sure that people do not fall into group-think.
 
New study suggests that CV19 mutations are not increasing transmissibility...which has to be good news

www.biorxiv.org

No evidence for increased transmissibility from recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which jumped into the human population in late 2019 from a currently uncharacterised reservoir. Due to this extremely recent association with humans, SARS-CoV-2 may not yet be fully adapted to its human host. This has led to...
www.biorxiv.org www.biorxiv.org
 
California_PNE said:
New unherd discussion, I've not watched it yet.

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There's a transcript here

unherd.com

Sunetra Gupta: Covid-19 is on the way out

The author of the Oxford model defends her view that the virus has passed through the UK's population
unherd.com unherd.com

I know nowhere near enough to know whether she's right or wrong but I certainly hoe she is. One thing I am wary of is complacency and the more publicity this sort of thing gets, the more chance there is of complacency. I'm inclined to think she might be right (wishful thinking maybe) but we've had 2 months of this and a bit extra is worth enduring.
 
wld said:
There's a transcript here

unherd.com

Sunetra Gupta: Covid-19 is on the way out

The author of the Oxford model defends her view that the virus has passed through the UK's population
unherd.com unherd.com

I know nowhere near enough to know whether she's right or wrong but I certainly hoe she is. One thing I am wary of is complacency and the more publicity this sort of thing gets, the more chance there is of complacency. I'm inclined to think she might be right (wishful thinking maybe) but we've had 2 months of this and a bit extra is worth enduring.
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Thanks for taking time to look at it wld, not much alternative perspective is given chance either on here or in general there's definitely a dominant narrative. All I can say if unherd have this sort of discussion is invariably balanced and critical. I hope and think she is right.
 
California_PNE said:
Thanks for taking time to look at it wld, not much alternative perspective is given chance either on here or in general there's definitely a dominant narrative. All I can say if unherd have this sort of discussion is invariably balanced and critical. I hope and think she is right.
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She is highly thought of by professor Sikora and I suspect he knows a thing or two 😉

I remember posting her research back at the start when she said the virus had infected half the population - the antibody test results thus far don't back her up but there must have been more exposure to the virus than these tests show.
 
California_PNE said:
Thanks for taking time to look at it wld, not much alternative perspective is given chance either on here or in general there's definitely a dominant narrative. All I can say if unherd have this sort of discussion is invariably balanced and critical. I hope and think she is right.
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I think it`s fine to accept the dominant narrative as a given. I support lockdown 100% and do believe that until we know different, we need to take the worst case scenarios seriously, and also need to repeatedly question the government on it`s failures.

But at the same time, any reports/theories/studies/viewpoints appertaining to alternative approaches that may or may not be espoused by the `right wing` might have the potential, once all the facts are known, to be positive news for everyone, and need to be explored and debated in cool discussions, not mud slinging and political bun fights.

Good work, guys.
 
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