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Brexit never? Britain can still change its mind, says Article 50 autho

Regardless

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You're describing capitalism and the global movement of labour that long predates EU freedom of movement.

But, EU freedom of movement exacerbates the issue (the existence of a brain drain within the EU is not a particularly controversial viewpoint and has been widely covered in the literature). Especially when tied to economic and mercantilist policies emanating from the core countries that beggar peripheral countries and deliberately contract their economies, using debt as a form of control.

It is just another form of exploitation, sadly. The EU should be an organisation that sets out to alleviate this problem. Sadly, it does the opposite.

Your charge is that the EU is exacerbating the diminution of the economies of the 'peripheral' states.

So... genuine non-rhetorical question... Looking at Greece's economy now, how do you think it would compare if Greece had not joined the EU in 1981? My impression is that, in relative terms, Greece's economy is stronger now than it was back then... and similar for other 'peripheral' countries.
 

Sepp Blatter

Kemi Badenoch Groupie
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Your charge is that the EU is exacerbating the diminution of the economies of the 'peripheral' states.

So... genuine non-rhetorical question... Looking at Greece's economy now, how do you think it would compare if Greece had not joined the EU in 1981? My impression is that, in relative terms, Greece's economy is stronger now than it was back then... and similar for other 'peripheral' countries.
Back then, Greece would have been able to use currency devaluation to remain competitive. However, because the Euro does not allow this, then this structural imbalance means that peripheral economics cannot compete with the stronger core economies. This is the problem with currency unions that do not include fiscal transfers. Again, this is well discussed in the literature and we have covered it many, many times on this thread.

Thus, the economies of peripheral countries decline and shrink, private/public debts build up, and domestic production suffers. When they are forced to bail out foreign banks, undergo counter-productive austerity, and see national debts soar, then we are now in a worse place than we would have been.

As I have stated before, without the Euro, we would not be having this conversation and your point would stand - IMO, Brexit might not have happened. But, we do have the Euro and it has wreaked havoc. Even then, with better policies after the financial crisis, then things might have panned out differently. Sadly, the domestic policies of core countries dictated the response and shifted all blame and punishment shifted to the periphery (when blame belonged to everyone), so we are where we are - not a particularly good place.
 

Portishead

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The problem with the EU's freedom of movement (and I am not necessarily against it - just have some concerns) is that people always look at it in terms of people wanting to move for dream jobs etc. Or complain because they can't get cheap foreign labour for certain sectors.

They rarely look at the other side - of people forced to move because of economic disparity and lack of opportunity. An exploitative brain drain that countries such as France benefit from at the expense of peripheral countries - destroy an economy through austerity and then skim off young workers to solve your own domestic issues. Leaving the sending country with demographic imbalances and a lower tax base, but that doesn't matter, of course.

That's before we look at the fact that the reason they can afford to offer dream jobs is because the poorest people in other countries are paying the burden of bailing out their irresponsible fucking banks.

I dont think getting a job in France or Germany is a 'dream' job. But a job in those countries is now being denied to our childrens generation. As an island race, its vital that we have easy connection with our nearest neighbours to ensure we dont become isolated and critically narrow in our outlook. Our history is built on trade and international relations for good or bad. Post Brexit, you can see the way we're heading with shitty attitudes towards foreigners becoming the norm and constant denial about the economic consequences. Encouraged by the dreadful anti Brexit press. Every business person I know that trades with Europe has stated flat out it is utterly shit with little hope of recovery, but we're all meant to swallow it because a load of Empire lovers wanted to relive the 19th and 20th centuries. Well we're stuck with it, but ffs dont keep telling us its the right see decision for UK on moral grounds because it might just give comfort to lesser countries in the EU. They need to look after themselves. Its not the reason loads of people voted Brexit anyway even if it sounds quaint. Its because they thought we could go it alone better by ignoring the benefits of frictionless trade and to bring up the drawbridge on foreign workers, How many years of economic pain and continued net immigration do we need to witness before any fecker will admit well maybe it wasn't the brightest of ideas or solutions
 

Regardless

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.
Back then, Greece would have been able to use currency devaluation to remain competitive. However, because the Euro does not allow this, then this structural imbalance means that peripheral economics cannot compete with the stronger core economies. This is the problem with currency unions that do not include fiscal transfers. Again, this is well discussed in the literature and we have covered it many, many times on this thread.

Thus, the economies of peripheral countries decline and shrink, private/public debts build up, and domestic production suffers. When they are forced to bail out foreign banks, undergo counter-productive austerity, and see national debts soar, then we are now in a worse place than we would have been.

As I have stated before, without the Euro, we would not be having this conversation and your point would stand - IMO, Brexit might not have happened. But, we do have the Euro and it has wreaked havoc. Even then, with better policies after the financial crisis, then things might have panned out differently. Sadly, the domestic policies of core countries dictated the response and shifted all blame and punishment shifted to the periphery (when blame belonged to everyone), so we are where we are - not a particularly good place.

For sure, you' have made these points many times! You might feel it repetitive because you've chosen to repeat of the list of the drawbacks of EU membership - where my non-rhetorical question was probing where Greece would be if it had never joined. There have been, I presume, benefits of EU membership as well as drawbacks.

Greece could have devalued. Helpful in making tourism and exports cheaper. I am not quite old enough to know first-hand, but recall the impression that Corfu and Spanish Costas were cheap as chips to visit. Great... but the other side of that is that a devalued currency means that imports (including oil) would have been much more expensive. Where I do have some first-hand knowledge is in manufacturing and science. How much have the 'peripheral states' economies been bolstered by the single market and collaboration in research and investment in manufacturing with / from core countries? (to be clear, collaboration is a two-way benefit... so it's not just Greece the benefits, collaboration benefits everyone. One major drawback of Brexit.

It seems to me that the EU has brought some very big drawbacks for Greece, and big benefits - benefits that perhaps don't stare us in the face quite so much... and perhaps less quantifiable. What is the net position?....
 

Sepp Blatter

Kemi Badenoch Groupie
Patron
.


For sure, you' have made these points many times! You might feel it repetitive because you've chosen to repeat of the list of the drawbacks of EU membership - where my non-rhetorical question was probing where Greece would be if it had never joined. There have been, I presume, benefits of EU membership as well as drawbacks.

Greece could have devalued. Helpful in making tourism and exports cheaper. I am not quite old enough to know first-hand, but recall the impression that Corfu and Spanish Costas were cheap as chips to visit. Great... but the other side of that is that a devalued currency means that imports (including oil) would have been much more expensive. Where I do have some first-hand knowledge is in manufacturing and science. How much have the 'peripheral states' economies been bolstered by the single market and collaboration in research and investment in manufacturing with / from core countries? (to be clear, collaboration is a two-way benefit... so it's not just Greece the benefits, collaboration benefits everyone. One major drawback of Brexit.

It seems to me that the EU has brought some very big drawbacks for Greece, and big benefits - benefits that perhaps don't stare us in the face quite so much... and perhaps less quantifiable. What is the net position?....
As I said, the response to your rhetorical question is in two parts. Greece and other countries joining the EU, rhetorically without the Euro - the positives outweigh the negatives and I would be in full agreement. I don't have an issue with an EU - it is this EU I dislike.

Unfortunately, the Euro has undone all of that previous work - this is very much the problem. One issue is that it is very difficult for the peripheral countries to compete in manufacturing and technology, so the benefits of research collaboration and investment are diluted. Geography and other factors mean that they cannot match the efficiencies of the core countries and they simply take away the best talent and are buying up public assets. In other words, your collaboration is already skewed because the benefits favour some at the expense of others.

Plus, while you look at one at only one side of the import equation (and you are right, it is a disadvantage), there is the other - expensive imports encourage domestic production. With the same currency, cheaper imports from other countries destroy domestic industry, and that is where the economic issues and debts begin. Small countries with fewer resources and less infrastructure cannot follow the German economic model - and tying everyone to the same interest rates was absolute folly.

Greece has a national debt to GDP that has gone from about 20% to over 200% since joining the EU, and other peripheral countries are much the same. Without fiscal transfer and/or a degree of debt mutualisation and bankruptcy/default procedures, the currency is a burden. Sorry, but I am struggling to see many benefits of membership at the moment. That is the reality.
 

Sepp Blatter

Kemi Badenoch Groupie
Patron
I dont think getting a job in France or Germany is a 'dream' job. But a job in those countries is now being denied to our childrens generation. As an island race, its vital that we have easy connection with our nearest neighbours to ensure we dont become isolated and critically narrow in our outlook. Our history is built on trade and international relations for good or bad. Post Brexit, you can see the way we're heading with shitty attitudes towards foreigners becoming the norm and constant denial about the economic consequences. Encouraged by the dreadful anti Brexit press. Every business person I know that trades with Europe has stated flat out it is utterly shit with little hope of recovery, but we're all meant to swallow it because a load of Empire lovers wanted to relive the 19th and 20th centuries. Well we're stuck with it, but ffs dont keep telling us its the right see decision for UK on moral grounds because it might just give comfort to lesser countries in the EU. They need to look after themselves. Its not the reason loads of people voted Brexit anyway even if it sounds quaint. Its because they thought we could go it alone better by ignoring the benefits of frictionless trade and to bring up the drawbridge on foreign workers, How many years of economic pain and continued net immigration do we need to witness before any fecker will admit well maybe it wasn't the brightest of ideas or solutions
I am all for cooperation with close neighbours and support the general principle of free movement - I think it can be enriching. However, what are the costs of having those things? If the downsides exceed the upsides, then are they worth it? Continuing with Reg's rhetorical mood, if Brexit had not occurred, how much integration/transferring of powers/centralisation would it take before some people reach that tipping point? Ever closer union is inevitable. How long before some feckers admitted that staying within the EU was not the brightest idea?

I guess, to turn it around, I could ask how anyone with leftish sympathies can support the EU given its core values and behaviour! You talk of Empire lovers, while I ask why people paint their faces blue and yellow. Is the idea of leaving the EU about comfort for minor countries or that they are the canary in the mine, and you have escaped from a fate that the organisation is rolling out to everyone?

My initial point about the dream jobs in France pointed out that the country can provide these jobs because it has cannibalised the peripheral countries and driven them into economic decline. That is the reality - would these jobs exist if France had to bail out its own banks?
 

Regardless

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As I said, the response to your rhetorical question is in two parts. Greece and other countries joining the EU, rhetorically without the Euro - the positives outweigh the negatives and I would be in full agreement. I don't have an issue with an EU - it is this EU I dislike.

Unfortunately, the Euro has undone all of that previous work - this is very much the problem. One issue is that it is very difficult for the peripheral countries to compete in manufacturing and technology, so the benefits of research collaboration and investment are diluted. Geography and other factors mean that they cannot match the efficiencies of the core countries and they simply take away the best talent and are buying up public assets. In other words, your collaboration is already skewed because the benefits favour some at the expense of others.

Plus, while you look at one at only one side of the import equation (and you are right, it is a disadvantage), there is the other - expensive imports encourage domestic production. With the same currency, cheaper imports from other countries destroy domestic industry, and that is where the economic issues and debts begin. Small countries with fewer resources and less infrastructure cannot follow the German economic model - and tying everyone to the same interest rates was absolute folly.

Greece has a national debt to GDP that has gone from about 20% to over 200% since joining the EU, and other peripheral countries are much the same. Without fiscal transfer and/or a degree of debt mutualisation and bankruptcy/default procedures, the currency is a burden. Sorry, but I am struggling to see many benefits of membership at the moment. That is the reality.
You lost me at sentence one.
 

Regardless

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Patron
^^^. I was just fractionally late hitting the post button for this addition:

EDIT: Right... I've read the rest of it now... I thought you were taking the pee with that first sentence because I was clearly asking a hypothetical but NON-rhetorical question (if one can use 'non' in that way). But seeing the second use of the word rhetorical in the next sentence... do you mean 'hypothetical/hypothetically' rather than rhetorical/rhetorically?

Some fair criticisms made in the post... but my 10 minute editing window is about to end... and I need to go to bed!
 

Sepp Blatter

Kemi Badenoch Groupie
Patron
^^^. I was just fractionally late hitting the post button for this addition:

EDIT: Right... I've read the rest of it now... I thought you were taking the pee with that first sentence because I was clearly asking a hypothetical but NON-rhetorical question (if one can use 'non' in that way). But seeing the second use of the word rhetorical in the next sentence... do you mean 'hypothetical/hypothetically' rather than rhetorical/rhetorically?

Some fair criticisms made in the post... but my 10 minute editing window is about to end... and I need to go to bed!
Think I misread your post, so my apologies for that! Am working an all nighter for a client and skimmed through while grabbing a coffee.

Better to go with hypothetical - no idea why I used rhetorical instead. I'll blame it on the sleep deprivation! Been working for 20 hours straight and am feeling quite spaced :D
 

Nobber

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I dont think getting a job in France or Germany is a 'dream' job. But a job in those countries is now being denied to our childrens generation. As an island race, its vital that we have easy connection with our nearest neighbours to ensure we dont become isolated and critically narrow in our outlook. Our history is built on trade and international relations for good or bad. Post Brexit, you can see the way we're heading with shitty attitudes towards foreigners becoming the norm and constant denial about the economic consequences. Encouraged by the dreadful anti Brexit press. Every business person I know that trades with Europe has stated flat out it is utterly shit with little hope of recovery, but we're all meant to swallow it because a load of Empire lovers wanted to relive the 19th and 20th centuries. Well we're stuck with it, but ffs dont keep telling us its the right see decision for UK on moral grounds because it might just give comfort to lesser countries in the EU. They need to look after themselves. Its not the reason loads of people voted Brexit anyway even if it sounds quaint. Its because they thought we could go it alone better by ignoring the benefits of frictionless trade and to bring up the drawbridge on foreign workers, How many years of economic pain and continued net immigration do we need to witness before any fecker will admit well maybe it wasn't the brightest of ideas or solutions
Empire lovers?

Good God!
 

justinr73

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Face masks are still compulsory on public transport in Germany and it looks like I’m going to have to strap one on in a moment, despite having travelled maskless with the same people on the same train since we left Amsterdam about three hours ago!
 

justinr73

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Christ, 3 old bill have just boarded the train with a big dog to enforce mask wearing.

Luckily, I’d one around my wrist with a glass of red and some cheese straws on the go.
 

Nobber

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There were loads of pensioners that voted Brexit to bring back the 'good old days'. Some in my family. Must have passed you by.
It must have passed you by that several high profiles people involved in the eu have described their growth as Empire Building.

They admit it, pity you lot can’t.
 

Bardas

Putin – khuylo
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Face masks are still compulsory on public transport in Germany and it looks like I’m going to have to strap one on in a moment, despite having travelled maskless with the same people on the same train since we left Amsterdam about three hours ago!

I had to go to A&E at my local hospital quite early yesterday morning, then go have for an X-Ray, then to see another doc. ( Nowt serious).

The place was quiet...loads of staff chatting. Relaxed .That in itself after Covid seemed somewhat surreal.

And no-one I saw was wearing a mask.

So, so glad to see such normality,after the plague, the ongoing war, the trials of Brexit.

Made I feel quite reflective. What a time we live in. It`s one thing after another.

Thank God we`re looking after the planet. :(
 
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