Coronavirus finance/economy shizzle

jakehake

Preachs PA
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Know this is the stuff of boredom for lots and also lots of stress for many but it seems pertinent.

I know people will have taken hits on their personal finances, wages, savings, pensions you name it but how do people see themselves and also the bigger picture panning out.

it’s been a weird few months as anyone with investments rather than savings has mostly taken a hiding but despite the poor prognosis for the UK economy and also global the markets appear to have bounce a lot(I.e I think investments are about flat to where we are 13 months ago which isn’t too bad in effect I guess).

I don’t know why the markets are acting like this, the oil situation and uncoordinated way all the big economies are dealing with this are different. The central banks are propping everything up with more printing.

Anyone think some sort of global debt jamboree agreement could happen or an agreement for countries to write off certain amounts related to the virus?

Also things like what companies seem to have done well or badly, I’m amazed reading people buying shares in TUI and easyJet for example when we have no clear idea when stuff will resume but people presume they are cheap and will do well out of holidays during the recovery.

As Sepp posted on the other thread, the nation is now drinking at home in cheap clothes. Buy Diageo, sell Next sort of thing.
 

NorthWestern

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Don’t get me wrong here, I support what is in place at the moment, I don’t want this to sound patronising either. I still go out to work and yeah I will be paid while of sick. I know a lot won’t, I have to isolate at the moment but the mrs is going for a test in the morning after being advised to self isolate. As you know that means anyone else in the household has to do 14 days. I’ve only been off since yesterday but I’d rather be at work, and I hope the test comes back negative as she as well as her mother that lives with us will loose out on pay down to being in the private sector. I get the situation and all that, I’m waiting to see the big rich big boys to moan, I’ve seen one at the mo in the horrible ********** that is Branson. I hope we all can come out of this situation being supported by what’s in place. It really is a sad fucked up situation 😕
 
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jakehake

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I think the FTSE and world markets are significantly over valued and would not be surprised if the FTSE100 falls below the 5000 mark.
They were overvalued hence my surprise they are holding back at where they were. Seems counterintuitive
 

LostinSpace

PNE Exile
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I think the FTSE and world markets are significantly over valued and would not be surprised if the FTSE100 falls below the 5000 mark.
On a historical basis they are overvalued. But we’ve been living in unprecedented circumstances for the last 10 years with interest rates at close to zero. The only way to get any return above inflation has been the stock market so everyone’s piling in. Until interest rates rise, shares will continue to be at a premium.
 

Regardless

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Why not?! So much value has been destroyed. I think a fair number of big companies will go bust... and once they're gone, they're gone. No recovery to follow the dip. And though the majority will survive, which companies are going to be paying big dividends? Any dividends? Even the makers of disinfectant, which had looked a sure bet up to yesterday, now face mass lawsuits when start half the USA start injecting it.

Obviously some will ask how the hell I know better than the investors in the city. And even more obviously.... I have to admit not having much of a defence against that charge! But IMO there is some wishful thinking going on... fuelled by optimism from the falling death rates. At some point, we'll get a bit of a releasing of the lockdown... and then we'll get the second wave that everyone predicts... and reality will hit home!

I am in no position to know what the true fair value of the FTSE should be - but at some point, there will be a time when it starts to fall fast... and right or wrong... there will be enough bad news around that panic and selling-fever will set in rapido.
 
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jakehake

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On a historical basis they are overvalued. But we’ve been living in unprecedented circumstances for the last 10 years with interest rates at close to zero. The only way to get any return above inflation has been the stock market so everyone’s piling in. Until interest rates rise, shares will continue to be at a premium.
Will interest rates rise anytime soon though? High interest rates encourage saving and hamper the disposable income of home owners. I Imagine the expectation is they need us to spend, spend, spend after all this to get the economy cycling again(and start paying the government debts) especially those lucky enough to accrue during this period. Though obviously you also have the inflation risks at the other end of the spectrum
 

LostinSpace

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Will interest rates rise anytime soon though? High interest rates encourage saving and hamper the disposable income of home owners. I Imagine the expectation is they need us to spend, spend, spend after all this to get the economy cycling again(and start paying the government debts) especially those lucky enough to accrue during this period. Though obviously you also have the inflation risks at the other end of the spectrum
Interest rates are the key but all Western governments will keep them very low to support their weak economies.
 
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jakehake

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FTSE surging. Currently 6070. Really don't know why. Sell. Sell. Sell. Sell!!
People are finding positives even in the negatives. For long term investors there is still a wave seemingly to ride. The green shoots of companies going back are there but I don't necessarily see the optimism when things like BA have the threat of 12k losing jobs but ultimately air travel will pick up.

Odd times and been hard to sit on my hands at times but I'm almost heading back to neutral from January/February time, which from the position we were in about 4 weeks ago has seemed unimaginable
 
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jakehake

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Also the US figures of the Q1 contraction of 5% and then what looks like an even worse 40% for Q2, the figures for Q3 and Q4 are well in positive territory (for now) but would leave it around 20% down for the year which presumably on the face of things they possibly see as a positive outcome compared to the predictions of 30/35% drops for example. A long way to go and as with all predictions, only as good as their underlying facts
 

Regardless

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I’ll stake my considerable reputation as a legendary market economist on the ftse (now over 6100) falling below 6000 within a week. Then he’ll wish he had waited before buying in at today’s price 😉😆
 
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jakehake

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I’ll stake my considerable reputation as a legendary market economist on the ftse (now over 6100) falling below 6000 within a week. Then he’ll wish he had waited before buying in at today’s price 😉😆

Don't try and guess the markets! can probably be anywhere between 5000 and 7000 by next week in these odd times. Otherwise we'd all be rich ...well.....rich-er.....maybe
 

kingpne

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Am planning on having a dabble in one or two things in a few days, but certainly won’t be selling just yet.
 
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