Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

sliper

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In this article, Mike identifies two assumptions that SAGE has made, both of which he is convinced are wrong: that the entire population is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and that only 7% of the UK population has been infected with COVID-19 so far. It is these two assumptions that are driving SAGE to urge the Government to place the entire country under a second national lockdown. After all, if you think 93% of the country is vulnerable to the virus – and you think the infection fatality rate is around 1% (which is also wrong, obviously), you’re going to want to use any means necessary to suppress infection until a vaccine comes along. “I can empathise with anyone in that position,” writes Dr Yeadon. “It must cause despair that politicians aren’t doing what you’ve told them they must do.”

But both of these assumptions are wrong. Mike goes to great lengths to show that, in reality, about 30% of the population already had prior immunity to the virus, thanks to their exposure to other coronaviruses, including those responsible for some strains of the common cold, and that approximately 32% of Britons have been infected. If you factor in that 10% of the population are aged 10 or under and are therefore completely invulnerable to the disease, that leaves about 28% who are susceptible to being infected, not 93%. Not a million miles away from the herd immunity threshold, in other words, which is why Mike thinks the so-called “second wave” will shortly fizzle out, just as it has begun to do in Spain.


Given that some have been eager to criticise the GB declaration how about they study this in similar detail ?
 
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jakehake

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You don't think that if you are in a calorie deficit you will lose weight...?
Not in isolation, for the people you are targeting with your advice it's a lot more involved than that unfortunately. Example article below

 

California_PNE

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Not in isolation, for the people you are targeting with your advice it's a lot more involved than that unfortunately. Example article below

And you accuse others of being Ike 😃
 

sliper

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This is quite an explosive twitter thread.

Is that a twitter thread to the Minister who resigned ?
The former Chief Scientific Officer at Pfizer in charge of their respiratory research.. is urging a former minister to contact the police and arrest and interrogate key individuals involved in the Covid fraud. His contention is that this whole thing has been planned. That they have created the fear of a second wave that simply doesn't exist.. by relying on a PCR test that has many false positives. He is basically saying it isn't a cock up it is a criminal conspiracy.

Who isn't a "conspiracy theorist" now ?
 

wld

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This is quite an explosive twitter thread.

I‘ve read the whole thing and there are elements, quite a few, that I agree with. However, the cause isn't helped by accusing the government, the media etc of being part of a big conspiracy. Incompetent maybe, sorry definitely, but it’s not a conspiracy.
 

Snicky

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I‘ve read the whole thing and there are elements, quite a few, that I agree with. However, the cause isn't helped by accusing the government, the media etc of being part of a big conspiracy. Incompetent maybe, sorry definitely, but it’s not a conspiracy.
The media are not necessarily in a conspiracy but they are under strict controls on what they can report.
 
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