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Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

Snicky said:
Listen to these other opinions and discuss them.
That is the most frustrating part for me, those in power not addressing these other concerns in detail and not being questioned on them properly.
Hancock made a statement in the commons last week about the GBD but never addressed or ignored some key points.
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So opinion is an alternative to PCR tests? When all the conspiracy theorists were deriding that when there weren't any tests available at the start of the pandemic, especially in care homes. Remember the official Covid death toll only includes those who had a positive test, and very little testing was done in the care environment and there was none in the community outside hospitals at all until April.
 
Bobbage said:
So opinion is an alternative to PCR tests? When all the conspiracy theorists were deriding that when there weren't any tests available at the start of the pandemic, especially in care homes. Remember the official Covid death toll only includes those who had a positive test, and very little testing was done in the care environment and there was none in the community outside hospitals at all until April.
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Sorry I miss understood your question.
I would have thought that by now the PCR test would not be being used as the great indicator of infection, infectiousness and sickness.
I believe the inventor of the test said it should not be used in this way.
if it has to be used surely it should be used correctly and sparingly in a controlled manner like they used to do with flu.
 
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Snicky said:
Sorry I miss understood your question.
I would have thought that by now the PCR test would not be being used as the great indicator of infection, infectiousness and sickness.
I believe the inventor of the test said it should not be used in this way.
if it has to be used surely it should be used correctly and sparingly in a controlled manner like they used to do with flu.
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Think we both got our wires crossed a little. I'm seeing lots of disparaging words against the PCR tests but no other alternative offered, other than test twice or more.
 
Bobbage said:
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Think we both got our wires crossed a little. I'm seeing lots of disparaging words against the PCR tests but no other alternative offered, other than test twice or more.
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There is no problem with the PCR tests if they are used correctly and people understand the limitations. Testing twice might be the only way to go, and dropping the sensitivity is another option.

If there is an issue with false positives, as increasingly seems likely, then they need to be used much more carefully - apart from influencing policy decisions, possibly negatively, the data from them could be pretty much unusable for anyone trying to track the progress of the virus and how it spreads. In other words, a waste of time and resources.

Francois Balloux, the French professor I posted on the other thread, suggests less testing but more focused where it is needed. He is right, IMO - it is better to have less data of higher quality than loads of questionable data that simply muddies the waters and tells you very little. Poor data from China at the beginning of the pandemic did not help, so we should avoid making the same mistake.
 
sliper said:
Ireland : Irish government refuses to impose level 5 lockdown in Ireland ignoring the advice of their health officials.. and consider the cost of a level 5 lockdown as too high.

Very important those wanting an end to the madness sign this.. https://gbdeclaration.org/
The current total is almost 2500 health professionals, scientists and doctors supporting this.
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Thought I'd revisit this. Ireland now goes in to a full lockdown for 6 weeks having seen the results of ignoring their own health officials since late September. They were swayed by the Swedish approach of ignoring it and hoping it would go away.

"Just two weeks ago, the Irish government rejected expert advice to move to Level 5 restrictions. That now looks like a bad error in judgement.

In the past fortnight, the surge in Irish COVID-19 cases has gathered pace with frightening speed. In the last week, the record for daily cases in Ireland has been broken four times.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) had no choice but to again urge the government to go to Level 5 - but now for a longer period of six weeks. This time, the government has acquiesced"

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Ireland's PM announces six-week lockdown - 'If we pull together, we'll be able to celebrate Christmas'

Micheal Martin said Ireland's new measures are "probably Europe's strictest regime".
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
Another bit on Long Covid. Interesting that the more symptoms you exhibit at the start the more damaging it seems to be in the long term. Which if this is true/correlation then may placate some of the worries of mild cases/asymptomatic developing longer term symptoms

www.bbc.co.uk

Long Covid: Who is more likely to get it?

A study suggests old age increases the risk, as does asthma, excess weight, and being female.
www.bbc.co.uk

(research linked to the ZOE Covid reporting app)
 
Snicky said:
This is quite an explosive twitter thread.
threadreaderapp.com

Read and Share Twitter Threads easily!

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threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
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If there is one sure way of ensuring I don’t read an article on Twitter/ Facebook, it is to start by declaring that “I am Dr. X and I and just a handful of others now FULLY know what’s going on - and you’ve got to let me message you.”

Same if I notice that a post ends with “if you agree, pass it on”!
 
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Regardless said:
If there is one sure way of ensuring I don’t read an article on Twitter/ Facebook, it is to start by declaring that “I am Dr. X and I and just a handful of others now FULLY know what’s going on - and you’ve got to let me message you.”

Same if I notice that a post ends with “if you agree, pass it on”!
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Why? He was introducing himself to Chris Green.
Good to now that you can't be arsed looking at potentially new information and dismissing it due to a particular writing style.
 
Snicky said:
Why? He was introducing himself to Chris Green.
Good to now that you can't be arsed looking at potentially new information and dismissing it due to a particular writing style.
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Welcome to human nature!
I am sure that we all use our personal experiences and do similar in our own way - otherwise we’d have to read every word that is ever put in front of us :ROFLMAO:
 
Regardless said:
Welcome to human nature!
I am sure that we all use our personal experiences and do similar in our own way - otherwise we’d have to read every word that is ever put in front of us :ROFLMAO:
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That depends. If you are taking part in a conversation about a particular subject and wish to engage in a helpful and constructive way it’s good to read all sides.
 
Snicky said:
That depends. If you are taking part in a conversation about a particular subject and wish to engage in a helpful and constructive way it’s good to read all sides.
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I stand by what I said. I guess you’re just a sucker for “headlines for the gullible” :sneaky: 😁
 
Snicky said:
What?
You are discounting Michael Yeadon’s posts as “headlines for the gullible”?
May not be 100% correct but certainly does not appear to be out of the ordinary or conspiracy.
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Yeadon may or may not be a brilliant scientist and/or philosopher..

If he uses intros and/or headlines in the style of a conspiracy theorist or chain-letter bod... then the chances are that sensible people will use their valuable time on articles that look like they're likely to be well balanced. Harsh - "judging a book by its cover". In this specific case, perhaps it means I miss something interesting. But yes... he's using headlines for the gullible... and so will end up in an echo chamber.
 
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