Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

Sepp Blatter

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This is the sort of Tweet, from an eminent and influential scientist, that worries me. Resistance to flu is built upon previous immunity to similar strains - while vaccines have some effect, they are notoriously unreliable and often rely on exposure to previous strains to be most effective..

Claiming this as a victory, when it might yet have severe consequences in the future, is very short-sighted and ignores the dynamics of flu and how we evolved to live with it.
 

jamesOB

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This is the sort of Tweet, from an eminent and influential scientist, that worries me. Resistance to flu is built upon previous immunity to similar strains - while vaccines have some effect, they are notoriously unreliable and often rely on exposure to previous strains to be most effective..

Claiming this as a victory, when it might yet have severe consequences in the future, is very short-sighted and ignores the dynamics of flu and how we evolved to live with it.
However Sepp, if no one is catching flu this year then doesn’t that mean it will not need to mutate in order to reinfect? Meaning this years flu jab would work next year again without any issues?
 

raefil

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However Sepp, if no one is catching flu this year then doesn’t that mean it will not need to mutate in order to reinfect? Meaning this years flu jab would work next year again without any issues?
Add to that a lot less pressure on the NHS right now, when that is most needed.
 

sliper

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Very interesting letter to his MP on PCR testing. This guy clearly knows his stuff and has been trying to obtain the FPR on PCR tests since June.. and he also asks what progress has been made on External Quality Assessments of PCR labs recommended by the governments on advisors back in the summer.
PCR testing letter.jpgPCR testing letter 2.jpg

 
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pnewortham

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However Sepp, if no one is catching flu this year then doesn’t that mean it will not need to mutate in order to reinfect? Meaning this years flu jab would work next year again without any issues?
Flu doesn't really mutate. There are just loads of strains (around 50 or 60) and the predominant one changes every year, so the ratio of the A and B variants is adjusted in each year's vaccine to give the closest match. It's never completely tailored though and that's why the flu vaccine isn't actually that effective. Around 50-60%.
 

Sepp Blatter

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Flu doesn't really mutate. There are just loads of strains (around 50 or 60) and the predominant one changes every year, so the ratio of the A and B variants is adjusted in each year's vaccine to give the closest match. It's never completely tailored though and that's why the flu vaccine isn't actually that effective. Around 50-60%.
Yup - plus, you can have more than one strain circulating at the same time.

Our immunity to flu viruses is very complex, with various cross immunities and a sort of general immunity built up by exposure to several strains over time.

While the anti-Covid measures may seem beneficial in the short term, there is a chance that we are storing up trouble for future outbreaks by hindering the ability of the immune system to respond. Even the effectiveness of flu vaccines is dependent on this preexisting exposure to various strains.
 

pnewortham

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Yup - plus, you can have more than one strain circulating at the same time.

Our immunity to flu viruses is very complex, with various cross immunities and a sort of general immunity built up by exposure to several strains over time.

While the anti-Covid measures may seem beneficial in the short term, there is a chance that we are storing up trouble for future outbreaks by hindering the ability of the immune system to respond. Even the effectiveness of flu vaccines is dependent on this preexisting exposure to various strains.
The flu virus and how we've come to live with it are useful precedents, which I think need to be appreciated as this next 12 months unfolds.

We've had a gobal flu vaccine program since the 1940s, with something like a billion doses manufactured every year. And yet at the same time it's essentially relatively ineffective, doesn't provide anywhere near the level of protection people are 'expecting' with the covid vaccines, and 650,000 people still die every year, (WHO).

But this is the norm, we accept it. It's part of the background noise to our lives. I think this really does need to be remembered as we move into the next phase. Expectations calibrated accordingly.

Combine this with the need to reverse some of the restrictions that have been imposed, when the time is right, to ensure we get back to 'normal' living.

Extricating ourselves from this, both physically and mentally, will be just as difficult as getting into it in the first place.
 

Sepp Blatter

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The flu virus and how we've come to live with it are useful precedents, which I think need to be appreciated as this next 12 months unfolds.

We've had a gobal flu vaccine program since the 1940s, with something like a billion doses manufactured every year. And yet at the same time it's essentially relatively ineffective, doesn't provide anywhere near the level of protection people are 'expecting' with the covid vaccines, and 650,000 people still die every year, (WHO).

But this is the norm, we accept it. It's part of the background noise to our lives. I think this really does need to be remembered as we move into the next phase. Expectations calibrated accordingly.

Combine this with the need to reverse some of the restrictions that have been imposed, when the time is right, to ensure we get back to 'normal' living.

Extricating ourselves from this, both physically and mentally, will be just as difficult as getting into it in the first place.
Agree completely.

Managing expectations, as you correctly note, has been the problem all along.

Once organisations, politicians, and media started using powerful words like suppress, eradicate, defeat, reach zero covid, etc., they created a set of expectations that will be almost impossible to deliver.

Covid is more a natural disaster, like floods, storms, and fires that we can't stop. All we can do is mitigate and minimise the effects to ensure the least possible harm.

For the next pandemic, we have to be much, much better prepared. Can't keep locking everything down except as a very last resort.
 

portisheadpete

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Agree completely.

Managing expectations, as you correctly note, has been the problem all along.

Once organisations, politicians, and media started using powerful words like suppress, eradicate, defeat, reach zero covid, etc., they created a set of expectations that will be almost impossible to deliver.

Covid is more a natural disaster, like floods, storms, and fires that we can't stop. All we can do is mitigate and minimise the effects to ensure the least possible harm.

For the next pandemic, we have to be much, much better prepared. Can't keep locking everything down except as a very last resort.

On the law of averages, we shouldnt ordinarily have a pandemic for a good few more decades should we? Unfortunately many on here know better and this crisis is a blueprint for future concocted crises. Too much of a business opportunity for some, not to be missed at any cost.
 

Sepp Blatter

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On the law of averages, we shouldnt ordinarily have a pandemic for a good few more decades should we? Unfortunately many on here know better and this crisis is a blueprint for future concocted crises. Too much of a business opportunity for some, not to be missed at any cost.
That is the great unknown. We might not have one for decades, or we could have one in a couple of years.

We should prepare all the same, such as spending money on health services. Sadly, going by the can kicking after the financial crisis, I won't hold my breath.
 

sliper

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Zero confirmed positives found in 9300 asymptomatic students at Camrbidge Uni after 10 tested positive and were then given a second confirmatory test.

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Funky Monk

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Zero confirmed positives found in 9300 asymptomatic students at Camrbidge Uni after 10 tested positive and were then given a second confirmatory test.

View attachment 2400
Yes, of course false positives exist. Is 0.3% any worse than other comparable tests? I genuinely don't know. The best thing to do is to be aware of them and try to account for them. The false positive rate (assuming its accurately calculated) will be constant and therefore should scale linearly with increased testing.
 

sliper

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Yes, of course false positives exist. Is 0.3% any worse than other comparable tests? I genuinely don't know. The best thing to do is to be aware of them and try to account for them. The false positive rate (assuming its accurately calculated) will be constant and therefore should scale linearly with increased testing.

I know the originally Tweet goes on about FPR's but I just thought it was very good news that so few asymptomatic people had tested positive out of 9300.. and with a second confirmatory test.. it worked out as zero. Almost no evidence of asymptomatic transmission
 
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sliper

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"Data from NHS England - Reviewing the data form the latest Covid Publication issued on 12th December we discover the story that the Government Dashboard does not report. 75% of Covid admissions were post Admission Infections, Asymptomatic cases, in hospital Infections & were planned."

 
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