Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

pnewortham

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It would be great if that were the case given we were originally working on the basis of 3 month immunity. A lot of it depends on the reliability of the testing and how much exposure there has been.

If be interested to see them all retested with the spread of the new variant and see if the results are the same.

Obviously given the experience with my dad I am still very sceptical about false negatives on the pcr testing. (I've also had the reason behind this explained to me by the medical team but I'll do a post about that another time)
One advantage of all the testing is the samples are all stored, and easily revisited, so can be tested quickly against the new strain(s).

Good news about your dad being on the mend Paddy.
 

Snicky

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I can recall almost to the minute, the point in my own career where I became 'aware'. My own little enlightening. Literally the day of the week it happened.

I went all the way through uni and post-grad thinking it was all about the science, the numbers, the results. That was enough. Do good science. Then get a job, enter the world of commerce, start on the career ladder. Then the epiphany hits and you understand there's these external forces at play. You start to see senior decision makers, making apparently 'odd' decisions. Call it politics, or whatever.

Those who can't hack it spend their lives in the shadows of academia, buried in books and leaving that stuff to others.

Those who embrace it become gold dust - scientists who can form a sentence and hold an audience captive on the podium. Using light and shade. Science as a mechanism to inform and enthrall and educate.

Brian Cox, I suppose.
You sound as passionate about science as my wife. She has 16 years in Pharma behind her and is training as a secondary science teacher. It’s amazing to see how much passion she has for it.
 

Snicky

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I think I have said it before but the major problem I see in all this is that the alleged “cranks” “pseudo scientists” and “deniers” as they are called, produce what appears to be logical and balanced arguments that they can back up, they are immediately derided and shut down. Mike Yeadon for example is not some fly by night half wit, he has a phenomenal CV. What does he have to gain by being so vociferous? He stands to have a lot to lose judging by the reaction to him by the mainstream.

I would love to see all this discussed by qualified people in a proper manner. Even if Whitty, Van Tam or Vallance took a few questions on it, it could end a few arguments.

Why has no one come out and directly confronted the false PCR test issues? There appears to be plenty on that.

Best wishes to you and your father Paddy, I hope everything gets sorted soon.
 

paddysr

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I think I have said it before but the major problem I see in all this is that the alleged “cranks” “pseudo scientists” and “deniers” as they are called, produce what appears to be logical and balanced arguments that they can back up, they are immediately derided and shut down. Mike Yeadon for example is not some fly by night half wit, he has a phenomenal CV. What does he have to gain by being so vociferous? He stands to have a lot to lose judging by the reaction to him by the mainstream.

I would love to see all this discussed by qualified people in a proper manner. Even if Whitty, Van Tam or Vallance took a few questions on it, it could end a few arguments.

Why has no one come out and directly confronted the false PCR test issues? There appears to be plenty on that.

Best wishes to you and your father Paddy, I hope everything gets sorted soon.
Cheers.

So I'll address the pcr testing around the false negatives now. This is based on what I've been told.

So with my dad he has been tested at least 10 times and every test has been negative. The first test was one of the lateral flow ones the subsequent ones have been pcr tests. He was diagnosed via a chest x-ray and we believe through a sputum test that took days to come back.

What they said was that because of where the virus had taken hold, in the depths of his lungs, it was no longer detectable using normal testing.

There is a possibility that at some point he would have been able to test positive but as he was asymptomatic there was no reason to test.

We were advised that they had seen many other patients the same as my dad who had severe covid pneumonia but were testing negative in the same way so for them it wasn't a massive surprise.

Now I'm not suggesting that this is always going to be the case but it will certainly go some way to explain a percentage of the false negatives.
 

raefil

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You sound as passionate about science as my wife. She has 16 years in Pharma behind her and is training as a secondary science teacher. It’s amazing to see how much passion she has for it.
I can understand her having a passion for something else after so long with you ;)
 

paddysr

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Cheers.

So I'll address the pcr testing around the false negatives now. This is based on what I've been told.

So with my dad he has been tested at least 10 times and every test has been negative. The first test was one of the lateral flow ones the subsequent ones have been pcr tests. He was diagnosed via a chest x-ray and we believe through a sputum test that took days to come back.

What they said was that because of where the virus had taken hold, in the depths of his lungs, it was no longer detectable using normal testing.

There is a possibility that at some point he would have been able to test positive but as he was asymptomatic there was no reason to test.

We were advised that they had seen many other patients the same as my dad who had severe covid pneumonia but were testing negative in the same way so for them it wasn't a massive surprise.

Now I'm not suggesting that this is always going to be the case but it will certainly go some way to explain a percentage of the false negatives.
Further to this we were advised that because it wasn't present in his mouth or nose it was unlikely he was contagious but not impossible. Given they are still taking every precaution possible I suspect they are unable to determine if there is still active covid at this point even though he is no longer on any covid related treatment (steroids and oxygen)
 

Snicky

Thorium Indium Potassium
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Cheers.

So I'll address the pcr testing around the false negatives now. This is based on what I've been told.

So with my dad he has been tested at least 10 times and every test has been negative. The first test was one of the lateral flow ones the subsequent ones have been pcr tests. He was diagnosed via a chest x-ray and we believe through a sputum test that took days to come back.

What they said was that because of where the virus had taken hold, in the depths of his lungs, it was no longer detectable using normal testing.

There is a possibility that at some point he would have been able to test positive but as he was asymptomatic there was no reason to test.

We were advised that they had seen many other patients the same as my dad who had severe covid pneumonia but were testing negative in the same way so for them it wasn't a massive surprise.

Now I'm not suggesting that this is always going to be the case but it will certainly go some way to explain a percentage of the false negatives.
How did end up at the point he is after being asymptomatic?

This is what I need to understand about the PCR test, there are many many stories of false positives, which will put a strain on NHS workforce and even worse false negatives,

Why are these not being publicly addressed? Not doing so creates mistrust.
 

pnewortham

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Cheers.

So I'll address the pcr testing around the false negatives now. This is based on what I've been told.

So with my dad he has been tested at least 10 times and every test has been negative. The first test was one of the lateral flow ones the subsequent ones have been pcr tests. He was diagnosed via a chest x-ray and we believe through a sputum test that took days to come back.

What they said was that because of where the virus had taken hold, in the depths of his lungs, it was no longer detectable using normal testing.

There is a possibility that at some point he would have been able to test positive but as he was asymptomatic there was no reason to test.

We were advised that they had seen many other patients the same as my dad who had severe covid pneumonia but were testing negative in the same way so for them it wasn't a massive surprise.

Now I'm not suggesting that this is always going to be the case but it will certainly go some way to explain a percentage of the false negatives.
Interesting stuff Paddy. Respiratory infection in the upper airways is quite a different beast to that in the lungs. But what you've also highlighted is the importance of clinical assessment in a correct diagnosis.
 

paddysr

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How did end up at the point he is after being asymptomatic?
He picked up two secondary infections and went into septic shock. We were genuinely shocked when they told us it was covid.

His immune system had been doing it's job but led to the infections taking over. His body just couldn't fight everything at the same time. In a way the sepsis was a blessing because if his lungs had deteriorated at home the way they did in the hospital I'm not sure he would have been able to get the treatment as quickly as he did which ultimately saved his life.

They had only just got his temperature and BP under control when they had to rush him to critical but they were able to get him on a cpap within minutes and start the steroids.
 

pnewortham

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I think I have said it before but the major problem I see in all this is that the alleged “cranks” “pseudo scientists” and “deniers” as they are called, produce what appears to be logical and balanced arguments that they can back up, they are immediately derided and shut down. Mike Yeadon for example is not some fly by night half wit, he has a phenomenal CV. What does he have to gain by being so vociferous? He stands to have a lot to lose judging by the reaction to him by the mainstream.

I would love to see all this discussed by qualified people in a proper manner. Even if Whitty, Van Tam or Vallance took a few questions on it, it could end a few arguments.

Why has no one come out and directly confronted the false PCR test issues? There appears to be plenty on that.

Best wishes to you and your father Paddy, I hope everything gets sorted soon.
I thought Whitty & Valance actually started to lift the lid tonight and break out into glimpses of actual science, mutations, forecasts for next year, and so on. A little bit of welcome science and not just flim-flam. Would love to see the 2 of them chatting away, chewing the fat.
 

sliper

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If you need a good laugh 11.34 on this Talk Radio video.. brilliant impersonations of our "favourite" politicians !

 
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Snicky

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More Ivermectin info.
Surely as much, if not more research should be done on prophylactics like this?

 

jamesOB

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More Ivermectin info.
Surely as much, if not more research should be done on prophylactics like this?

I think we’ll see it more focused on now there’s positive signs from this and they’re happy that tocilizumab and sarilumab reduce death rates

I’d like to see them looking at whether they can be used synergistically with some of the other promising drugs to negate side effects
 
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