Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

wld

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Apologies I forgot you need subscription to read it. Next time I'll print it all or not bother with a link.
You can get the idea from the first couple of paragraphs. I think there’s probably a lot of straw clutching going on with all of us who’ve not tested positive - like me with the Christmas illness. We‘re all hoping for some good news or a way out of this for us personally.

I wasn‘t being sarcastic, apologies if you thought I was.
 

sliper

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"No new cases in London and the East of England recorded on MAY 18th..

It calculated that the crucial 'R' reproduction rate - the average number of people an infected patient passes the virus on to - has fallen to just 0.4 in the capital, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days."
 

PNEESSEX

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"No new cases in London and the East of England recorded on MAY 18th..

It calculated that the crucial 'R' reproduction rate - the average number of people an infected patient passes the virus on to - has fallen to just 0.4 in the capital, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days."
In the article it did say this about the zero cases in London and SE:

"Officials have played down the numbers, suggesting that they may be the result of a technical hitch known to have happened over the weekend, and explaining that they will rise in the coming days as more results come back. The number should not be interpreted to mean the epidemic is tailing off, they said. "
 

Sepp Blatter

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This has always been one of my fears about this epidemic and lockdown - have seen a lot of studies suggesting that the mental health effects are significant. Articles like these sum things up pretty nicely:



We will have to wait and see how bad this gets, but the resulting economic downturn is only going to make things worse.
 
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sliper

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In the article it did say this about the zero cases in London and SE:

"Officials have played down the numbers, suggesting that they may be the result of a technical hitch known to have happened over the weekend, and explaining that they will rise in the coming days as more results come back. The number should not be interpreted to mean the epidemic is tailing off, they said. "
Ok.. but it does surely mean that new cases have in fact tailed off substantially.. maybe not to zero but heading that way.. the info is 4 days old and (I believe) new cases are reducing by 35% every three days. It must be close to track and trace being possible.
 

LancasterRed

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Worrying behaviour from the United Kingdom police force!


Interesting piece. Very biased though, not giving consideration to the alternative viewpoint.

But of course the lockdown was necessary, to protect people. The police have a duty to protect, and people make mistakes. I think unfamiliarity with new rules is a perfectly reasonable excuse. Besides, you shouldn't be out unless you need to.
 

California_PNE

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Interesting piece. Very biased though, not giving consideration to the alternative viewpoint.

But of course the lockdown was necessary, to protect people. The police have a duty to protect, and people make mistakes. I think unfamiliarity with new rules is a perfectly reasonable excuse. Besides, you shouldn't be out unless you need to.
Lancaster --> The Crown Prosecution Service has revealed that every single person prosecuted under the Coronavirus Act, which gives police powers to detain ‘potentially infectious’ people, was wrongfully charged.

Bias? Well it is certainly a critique of the corona cops

If you don't mind please go back and correct your post accusing me of instigating bickering on the other thread 🙂 - cause I didnt
 

LancasterRed

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Bias? Well it is certainly a critique of the corona cops
A 'news' site using biased terminology such as 'corona cops' and calling them 'twattish' tends to be biased.

If you don't mind please go back and correct your post accusing me of instigating bickering on the other thread 🙂 - cause I didnt
I never accused you of instigating bickering, I pointed out that you were arguing. And you were, even if you didn't start it.
 

California_PNE

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A 'news' site using biased terminology such as 'corona cops' and calling them 'twattish' tends to be biased.



I never accused you of instigating bickering, I pointed out that you were arguing. And you were, even if you didn't start it.
Ok. 🤔
Btw I didn't start any bickering 👍🏻 alter your post.
 

PNEESSEX

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Worrying behaviour from the United Kingdom police force!


I imagine that he would be having a full blown breakdown if he lived in Spain where theyve averaged 15,000 fines a day since lockdown began. We are still at fewer than 15,000 fines in total....

Notwithstanding my dislike for Tom Slater, who is a snivelling little shit IMO, he is correct to say that the police havent exactly covered themselves in glory.
 

Sepp Blatter

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Interesting findings regarding Sweden's approach. Official data show far fewer have CV19 antibodies than anticipated

Interesting, and lower than thought, but it is important to note that this reflects levels of antibodies in early April. It is now late May - the number will have risen in 5 - 6 weeks.

Think the way the Guardian reported that is verging on the misleading.
 

California_PNE

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I imagine that he would be having a full blown breakdown if he lived in Spain where theyve averaged 15,000 fines a day since lockdown began. We are still at fewer than 15,000 fines in total....

Notwithstanding my dislike for Tom Slater, who is a snivelling little shit IMO, he is correct to say that the police havent exactly covered themselves in glory.
🙂 Good post Essex! 👍🏻
 

PNEESSEX

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This article has a much more nuanced view, including the explanation - where the truth lies, that is the important question.

Cf data from London which suggests 17% have the antibodies

 

PNEESSEX

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Ok.. but it does surely mean that new cases have in fact tailed off substantially.. maybe not to zero but heading that way.. the info is 4 days old and (I believe) new cases are reducing by 35% every three days. It must be close to track and trace being possible.
New cases are running @ 2k+ a day. I think the interesting thing is the geographical distribution of these cases. I havent seen any really decent analysis of this tbh. What is true is that the number of cases, on a rolling average basis is certainly coming down
 

Sepp Blatter

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Cf data from London which suggests 17% have the antibodies

True, although that is a very densely populated and very large London that is an international travel hub, with antibody tests taken at a later date. Difficult to compare that with Stockholm in early April. Stockholm could presently be 8, 18, or 28% - we don't know.

Unfortunately, that Guardian article is now being shared around social media as if Stockholm *presently* has only 7.3% of people with antibodies.

Very poor form from the newspaper - it's no wonder I read it less and less.
 

California_PNE

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True, although that is a very densely populated and very large London that is an international travel hub, with antibody tests taken at a later date. Difficult to compare that with Stockholm in early April. Stockholm could presently be 8, 18, or 28% - we don't know.

Unfortunately, that Guardian article is now being shared around social media as if Stockholm *presently* has only 7.3% of people with antibodies.

Very poor form from the newspaper - it's no wonder I read it less and less.
Lot of people hoping for Sweden to basically fail badly and also they're always compared to their 'nordic' neighbors by the lockdowners. Interesting.
 
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