Coronavirus science and statistics(no politics)

Sepp Blatter

Lord of Geeks
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I’ll be honest, I’ve not watched the video but assuming it touches on what we’ve talked about before ie T cells, natural immunity etc I‘ve given up trying to explain to people (off here) that this means we’re not all about to part of an apocalypse. You’ve even got people on the thread about stadiums reopening stating, with apparent authority, there’ll be no crowds all next season.

I‘ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The press has a lot to answer for, they’re worrying people into early graves.
That is pretty much what it talks about - it was a real 'gotcha' moment for me because it linked all the things we have discussed together for the first time.

Interesting because it is from an immunologist who understands how viruses and the immune system work.

That is one of the problems he highlights - that the whole process has been driven by epidemiologists. While that is understandable and sensible, there is a tendency in the press to assume that epidemiologists are experts about viruses etc., when most actually are not - you don't need a background in biology or medicine to study epidemiology.

He also pointed out the dangers of group-think, too. He doesn't give a shit and will say what he wants, but he claims that he was contacted by less illustrious immunologists who understood this already, but were afraid to speak out because of pressure from colleagues and the potential harm to their career.
 

Sepp Blatter

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Completely agree on the press comment it's been incredible the chronic lack of any real challenge to the situation. The 'shit it' narrative has won hands down, there clearly is a right way to think, and all this press narrative has created this depressing culture of sneering and criticism of people who don't align to this narrative.
That has been the problem - there is plenty of research suggesting different directions.

That's not to say the research is right, because there are so many unknowns, but it should be discussed openly, not dismissed and ignored.
 

Nobber

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Completely agree on the press comment it's been incredible the chronic lack of any real challenge to the situation. The 'shit it' narrative has won hands down, there clearly is a right way to think, and all this press narrative has created this depressing culture of sneering and criticism of people who don't align to this narrative.
Which also is a reflection on poor leadership. If the government had been clear and precise regarding what was happening and why then people wouldn’t rely on the media bullshit.
 

sliper

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How do you explain the massively high numbers that register positive but have little or no symptoms?
Could be that people are able to fight the virus better during the warmer days of summer when their Vit D levels are higher... and houses and work places are more likely to be naturally ventilated (open windows).

This would also explain why places like Argentina and Australia have outbreaks because it is now the middle of their winter.

If numbers take off again in the autumn.. and the numbers going to hospital increase.. and the mortality this will surely confirm that.
But if they don't then the suspicion will increase that the virus has been around longer than we thought and we have reached the herd immunity threshold.. and things like T Cell immunity are big factors in keeping the numbers down.
 

Liberation

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The video that Snicky put in the other thread - it raises some very interesting points and draws together some topics we covered already and some questions we had:


These are some of the main points I remember.
  • That there is a higher level of pre-existing immunity to Covid-SAR-2 than thought, from previous similar viruses, even for people who have never been exposed to it.
  • Failure to take this cross-immunity into account is why Ferguson's model was very wrong - they assumed no existing immunity and therefore exponential growth, which has not happened.
  • Michael Levitt tried to warn Ferguson's group about the flaws in their model, but was ignored. Levitt's model, created back in March, is the only one that accurately predicted the progress of the disease.
  • Mortality in almost every country has followed the same curve, suggesting that lockdown has little effect. This includes Argentina, which has had one of the harshest and longest lockdown/mask regimes in the world.
  • The hospitals in Italy that struggled are the same ones that struggle with bad flu outbreaks.
  • Diabetics and people who are overweight but not immuno-compromised, are susceptible because they express a secondary cell receptor that the virus can bind to.
  • It could be seasonal - spikes in the North and South temperate areas six months apart, while tropical area see a more gradual, year round curve.
  • There is a dangerous group think amongst epidemiologists, politicians, and journalists.
  • Lockdown and face masks are now largely ineffective because the disease has already killed the people it is going to kill, as shown by the mortality curves and the suggestion that excess deaths in many countries are now negative.
  • Tests for the virus do not necessarily mean that someone is carrying the disease - the tests pick up virus fragments, so even if someone's immune system destroyed the virus quickly, they will test positive.
Will watch the rest tonight.

An article about Levitt's model - with interview.


I don't know how credible Stadler is but ( rightly or wrongly) he made far more sense to me than any bugger else has... Cheers to Snicky for posting the original too which I missed...


PS.... It's a long haul but I'd recommend it to anyone who can't make any sense out of all this... Well worth listening to.
 
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sliper

Forum Patron
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The video that Snicky put in the other thread - it raises some very interesting points and draws together some topics we covered already and some questions we had:


These are some of the main points I remember.
  • That there is a higher level of pre-existing immunity to Covid-SAR-2 than thought, from previous similar viruses, even for people who have never been exposed to it.
  • Failure to take this cross-immunity into account is why Ferguson's model was very wrong - they assumed no existing immunity and therefore exponential growth, which has not happened.
  • Michael Levitt tried to warn Ferguson's group about the flaws in their model, but was ignored. Levitt's model, created back in March, is the only one that accurately predicted the progress of the disease.
  • Mortality in almost every country has followed the same curve, suggesting that lockdown has little effect. This includes Argentina, which has had one of the harshest and longest lockdown/mask regimes in the world.
  • The hospitals in Italy that struggled are the same ones that struggle with bad flu outbreaks.
  • Diabetics and people who are overweight but not immuno-compromised, are susceptible because they express a secondary cell receptor that the virus can bind to.
  • It could be seasonal - spikes in the North and South temperate areas six months apart, while tropical area see a more gradual, year round curve.
  • There is a dangerous group think amongst epidemiologists, politicians, and journalists.
  • Lockdown and face masks are now largely ineffective because the disease has already killed the people it is going to kill, as shown by the mortality curves and the suggestion that excess deaths in many countries are now negative.
  • Tests for the virus do not necessarily mean that someone is carrying the disease - the tests pick up virus fragments, so even if someone's immune system destroyed the virus quickly, they will test positive.
Will watch the rest tonight.

An article about Levitt's model - with interview.

That's a great video.. I find it hard to disagree with any of it.
 

Snicky

Like a bad smell.....
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Can anybody shed any light on this hydroxychloroquine saga?

There has been an awful lot made of this drug, the Doctors in the US (including a couple if cranks admittedly) were adamant it works, other countries are using it i believe and some studies say that used at the right time its beneficial.

Its another thing that is getting lost in all the misinformation and bluster flying around. Trump endirding it obviously didn't do it any favours.
 
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Sepp Blatter

Lord of Geeks
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Can anybody shed any light on this hydroxychloroquine saga?

There has been an awful lot made of this drug, the Doctors in the US (including a couple if cranks admittedly) were adamant it works, other countries are using it i believe and some studies say that used at the right time its beneficial.

Its another thing that is getting lost in all the misinformation and bluster flying around. Trump endirding it obvioudky didn't do it any favours.
Post 1062 is based on what I have read about it - it may be useful in some cases, but it's not a miracle cure and could cause more harm than good if administered incorrectly.
 

Sepp Blatter

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I really dont know what is happening. Do the Government and their boffins?

An interesting article - Heneghan (along with Ioannidis from Stanford) have been very critical of some the data and analyses during this pandemic, especially the conclusions drawn from models. I am inclined to agree.
 

wld

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I really dont know what is happening. Do the Government and their boffins?

A possibility is that this paper makes no mention of pillar 4 testing - what the government calls surveillance testing. As I understand it, the results from pillar 4 seem to be what’s initiated the changes in the last few days.
 

Sepp Blatter

Lord of Geeks
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Korol

Football Expert
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I really dont know what is happening. Do the Government and their boffins?

The rise in cases really shouldn’t be a surprise and perhaps not even a massive concern as more testing will always bring more cases.

I also read somewhere that a decent rise of the new cases are under 30s, which wouldn’t be a surprise given they’re most likely to be out socialising and, if we’re frank, not following social distance guidelines.
 

Snicky

Like a bad smell.....
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I don't know how credible Stadler is but ( rightly or wrongly) he made far more sense to me than any bugger else has... Cheers to Snicky for posting the original too which I missed...


PS.... It's a long haul but I'd recommend it to anyone who can't make any sense out of all this... Well worth listening to.
I’ve finally finished listening to all of it and it is really interesting. And very frustrating. Why on Earth is this science and fact not being considered or listened to?
 

sliper

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Not good :(

Although it looks as if there are some good, creative efforts to mitigate things, at least.
So another list of deaths to add to those caused by health resources being focused on Covid 19 to the exclusion of other life threatening illnesses.

This all just gets crazier by the day. No wonder people believe conspiracy theories.

I believe there was a March in Berlin against their restrictions yesterday attended by over a million.
 

Sepp Blatter

Lord of Geeks
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The one thing this thread has proven is that there really is no exact science on this one.
Exactly - and that, really, has been our point all along. I have no idea if I am 'right' with my line of thinking (the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle), but it is important to look at everything.

That is not happening at the moment, sadly - even now, talking about the alternatives on Twitter sees you labelled as a genocidal manic, eugenicist, or hard right. That isn't helping us understand this virus and how to tackle it.
 

Liberation

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I’ve finally finished listening to all of it and it is really interesting. And very frustrating. Why on Earth is this science and fact not being considered or listened to?

Going with the flow is a far safer option.Even if it doesn't work too well you can always claim that everyone else was doing it and get yourself off the hook and stay in a job...... Perhaps that's a bit cynical but I'll wager it's not too far away from the truth. In fairness I suppose you have to balance that out with if the herd immunity approach was adopted ( still with restrictions of course) and it failed then those advocating it would be strung up. Mind you in that case we'd have all snuffed it so it wouldn't matter. :)

Joking aside and I'm not sure how many there are but I'd like to see head to heads between the Stadlers of this world and those putting forward the popular views...I doubt that we'll see it too often though..
 

Sepp Blatter

Lord of Geeks
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Another report out of Germany is lookibg at the same conclusion.


The original study - going to take a look. It's a non-peer-reviewed preprint, but looks very interesting.
 
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