Covid 19 - counter arguments

Regardless

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I think its worth mentioning.. it was the "crazies" who said that lockdown wouldn't end after 3-6-12 weeks.

The "crazies" said it was globally co-ordinated...

It was crazies like us who said they wouldn't give back their emergency powers without a struggle...

The "crazies" said from the beginning this was about vaccinating the entire population.. and guess what is happening ?

In these respects the conspiracy theorists..turned out to be "factualists

1/ The "crazies" scattergunned hundreds or thousands of different views, and have been hopelessly wrong about 95% of them. Like Russell Grant or Mystic Meg... this crowing about the few% where they happen to be right is rather stretching it!

2/ The idea that lockdown might extend beyond a few weeks was not the preserve of the "crazies". Nor was the idea that the entire population would need to be vaccinated. My lunatic relative keeps indignantly claiming that these sorts of thing were massive insights by the conspiracy theorists - and that the 'brainwashed sheep' in the rest of the population were blind to them... and that has been almost entirely rubbish
 

flippinheck

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1/ The "crazies" scattergunned hundreds or thousands of different views, and have been hopelessly wrong about 95% of them. Like Russell Grant or Mystic Meg... this crowing about the few% where they happen to be right is rather stretching it!

2/ The idea that lockdown might extend beyond a few weeks was not the preserve of the "crazies". Nor was the idea that the entire population would need to be vaccinated. My lunatic relative keeps indignantly claiming that these sorts of thing were massive insights by the conspiracy theorists - and that the 'brainwashed sheep' in the rest of the population were blind to them... and that has been almost entirely rubbish
SAGE have been hopelessly wrong about most of their predictions also.
 

flippinheck

Advisor to the Owner
My guess is that their hit-rate has been a touch higher than that of Dr Naomi "Crying" Wolf!
Doesn’t make it right that because as you agree SAGE gets many things wrong that we should not be able to listen to the view from eminent scientists ( of which there are 100s ) who have different views to SAGE . Sure, there are some crazy views around and the most crazy is that we should lockdown post 21st June because of fears of a third wave and should not get back to normal until Covid ceases to exist.
 

Regardless

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Doesn’t make it right that because as you agree SAGE gets many things wrong that we should not be able to listen to the view from eminent scientists ( of which there are 100s ) who have different views to SAGE . Sure, there are some crazy views around and the most crazy is that we should lockdown post 21st June because of fears of a third wave and should not get back to normal until Covid ceases to exist.
I didn’t actually agree that SAGE gets many things wrong. Obviously they get some things right and some wrong but I simply haven’t kept score on that.

My view, as already stated, is that shutting down people’s views is, in some cases, appropriate- but that we are now shutting them down much too often, and I don’t have a magic solution for “who should be the arbiter”.

As for lockdown beyond 21 June, it’s beyond my pay grade. We have seen other countries looking completely in control- then get lax and everything suddenly explodes. Our NHS staff need a break. But it does seem that the vaccine gives them that break - so I tend to agree that we need to prioritise other things than lockdown.
IMO it’s a much tougher call than is your opinion.
 
OP
sliper

sliper

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Covid Predictions and analysis...taken from twitter

1./ Some of my friends call me a conspiracy theorist. I beg to differ; I am a conspiracy analyst, as I do not invent them. As an underwriter with over 37 years’ experience in the market, analysing situations and critical thinking is what I do. 1/…

2./ Sticking one’s head in the sand is not a constructive approach to profitable underwriting. Nor is believing without challenging obvious contraindications let alone contradictions or crucial gaps in information or flaws in logical thinking.

3/. But I have a problem and wonder if you can help. I have run out of conspiracy theories to analyse as they have all come true. Just three examples (but you can find more in my timeline): - Vaccine passports. They are on their way.

4/. - Coercion to take vaccines. Vaccine passports will ensure that that happens. - June 21st freedom day will not happen.

5/. My next prediction is that the government will continue to ramp up testing so as to generate enough false positives and asymptomatic positives and will “find” more variants (ignoring the fact that variants are rarely more than 0.3% different from the pathogen contained….

6/. …..in the original and that immunity from the original provides immunity from the variants). The unproven narrative that asymptomatic children infect adults will continue, pushing the awful agenda that children, whose mortality rate is close to zero….

7/. …..should be vaccinated using these emergency-only authorised trial vaccines. You see, the trials (on humanity) of these vaccines do not finish phase three until the end of 2023, and until these are complete, licensing can only be under a temporary….

8/…… EUA (Emergency Use Approval) regime. Normally, unless there is an Ebola style epidemic, new vaccines are only released for public use after the successful completion of phase three trials. Thus it was no surprise to me that June 21st was going to be called off; …..

9/. …. if the UK government had followed through on it, it would immediately have been under pressure to relinquish emergency powers, which would stop the EUA vaccine programme in its tracks. My further prediction is that even if the new Freedom Day of 19th July is honoured,…

10/….. we will be back in Lockdown in the autumn, because of some new strain of ‘flu that will arrive. If you value your freedom, please think critically about any tacit acceptance of SAGE-led government decisions. ….

11/. …Push your MP to force government to allow an open debate among all qualified scientists and ask yourself why the government is squashing this debate. If you want to help, join #LiberalSpring

Bernie de Haldevang LiberalSpring.org
@Gilt_Elephant
 

Funky Monk

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Covid Predictions and analysis...taken from twitter

1./ Some of my friends call me a conspiracy theorist. I beg to differ; I am a conspiracy analyst, as I do not invent them. As an underwriter with over 37 years’ experience in the market, analysing situations and critical thinking is what I do. 1/…

2./ Sticking one’s head in the sand is not a constructive approach to profitable underwriting. Nor is believing without challenging obvious contraindications let alone contradictions or crucial gaps in information or flaws in logical thinking.

3/. But I have a problem and wonder if you can help. I have run out of conspiracy theories to analyse as they have all come true. Just three examples (but you can find more in my timeline): - Vaccine passports. They are on their way.

4/. - Coercion to take vaccines. Vaccine passports will ensure that that happens. - June 21st freedom day will not happen.

5/. My next prediction is that the government will continue to ramp up testing so as to generate enough false positives and asymptomatic positives and will “find” more variants (ignoring the fact that variants are rarely more than 0.3% different from the pathogen contained….

6/. …..in the original and that immunity from the original provides immunity from the variants). The unproven narrative that asymptomatic children infect adults will continue, pushing the awful agenda that children, whose mortality rate is close to zero….

7/. …..should be vaccinated using these emergency-only authorised trial vaccines. You see, the trials (on humanity) of these vaccines do not finish phase three until the end of 2023, and until these are complete, licensing can only be under a temporary….

8/…… EUA (Emergency Use Approval) regime. Normally, unless there is an Ebola style epidemic, new vaccines are only released for public use after the successful completion of phase three trials. Thus it was no surprise to me that June 21st was going to be called off; …..

9/. …. if the UK government had followed through on it, it would immediately have been under pressure to relinquish emergency powers, which would stop the EUA vaccine programme in its tracks. My further prediction is that even if the new Freedom Day of 19th July is honoured,…

10/….. we will be back in Lockdown in the autumn, because of some new strain of ‘flu that will arrive. If you value your freedom, please think critically about any tacit acceptance of SAGE-led government decisions. ….

11/. …Push your MP to force government to allow an open debate among all qualified scientists and ask yourself why the government is squashing this debate. If you want to help, join #LiberalSpring

Bernie de Haldevang LiberalSpring.org
@Gilt_Elephant
I get that we should have this thread to put all this stuff in - but all these conspiracy theories seem to break down at the most important part: a convincing motive.
 

Sepp Blatter

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Have been doing some research into the Delta variant - some very interesting information cropped up.

One of the reasons why the UK (and US) are seeing it grow is due to the success of the vaccination programs. As we discussed a while back, measures to mitigate the virus have created evolutionary pressure, so strains of the virus that are better at overcoming the barriers are going to dominate.

All part of an evolutionary 'arms race.'

The other thing is that the delta variant was in the UK and Europe as far back as February (possibly even earlier).
 

jamesOB

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Have been doing some research into the Delta variant - some very interesting information cropped up.

One of the reasons why the UK (and US) are seeing it grow is due to the success of the vaccination programs. As we discussed a while back, measures to mitigate the virus have created evolutionary pressure, so strains of the virus that are better at overcoming the barriers are going to dominate.

All part of an evolutionary 'arms race.'

The other thing is that the delta variant was in the UK and Europe as far back as February (possibly even earlier).
Hence why hospitalisations and deaths haven’t shot up too. We know that a virus mutates to survive which means it often sacrifices damage so it doesn’t kill the host before it can spread
 

wld

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Have been doing some research into the Delta variant - some very interesting information cropped up.

One of the reasons why the UK (and US) are seeing it grow is due to the success of the vaccination programs. As we discussed a while back, measures to mitigate the virus have created evolutionary pressure, so strains of the virus that are better at overcoming the barriers are going to dominate.

All part of an evolutionary 'arms race.'

The other thing is that the delta variant was in the UK and Europe as far back as February (possibly even earlier).
I know your scientific knowledge is a lot greater than mine so could you explain something please? This mutation process after vaccinations is something I was already aware of but if vaccinations is the primary cause of the mutations, why did it surge first in India?
 

Bobbage

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Hence why hospitalisations and deaths haven’t shot up too. We know that a virus mutates to survive which means it often sacrifices damage so it doesn’t kill the host before it can spread

Could the 130,000 deaths be a bit of a firebreak too? Anyone at risk and vulnerable (I think someone mentioned in January most of those dying wouldn't have lasted 2yrs without Covid) has now sadly passed away so there are fewer weakened hosts, as well as the vaccines and treatments etc
 

jamesOB

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Could the 130,000 deaths be a bit of a firebreak too? Anyone at risk and vulnerable (I think someone mentioned in January most of those dying wouldn't have lasted 2yrs without Covid) has now sadly passed away so there are fewer weakened hosts, as well as the vaccines and treatments etc
I can’t comment about that cos I’m not sure, but the bit in bold is physically impossible to predict. Doctors can guess but giving an accurate prognosis doesn’t happen, hence why sometimes they don’t tell the patient. Because many can outlive what they’re told is likely
 

Sepp Blatter

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It's not necessarily that vaccinations caused the mutation, because they happen anyway - more that this particular strain has taken advantage. It has been circulating in Europe as a strain for months.

In the UK, because vaccination has dampened the original alpha variant, it is suspected that the delta now has an evolutionary advantage and has started to dominate. In India, it could have surged for the same reason or for entirely different reasons.

It could, just as easily, have been another strain. As soon as you put measures in place, whether social distancing, lockdown, or vaccinations, there is a chance that a particular mutation, which is more transmissible, emerges.

As JamesOB said, it could be exactly what we expected with the virus - it eventually becomes more transmissible but less deadly over time.
 

Sepp Blatter

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I can’t comment about that cos I’m not sure, but the bit in bold is physically impossible to predict. Doctors can guess but giving an accurate prognosis doesn’t happen, hence why sometimes they don’t tell the patient. Because many can outlive what they’re told is likely
Yup - I guess that looking at excess deaths over time will probably give some indication of whether the 'dry tinder' idea has any merit. Probably need a lot more data and time, I suspect.
 
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