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Deflection

Mer5eywhite

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Climate change is real. Warming is real. BUT…The modelling is about as reliable as Ferguson used for Covid 19.

‘At the risk of spreading calm’

 

Mer5eywhite

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And before you say that I’m a climate change denying nutjob. I’m not.

The Behavioural Govt series by the Behavioural Insights Team talked about how we reject ideas from another group, even if they are good ideas:’If another party does not think the same way then our preferred reaction is not to reassess our own opinions. Instead, we try to come up with ways of denigrating the opposition. this happens because we find it hard to maintain both a positive image of ourselves and a positive image of someone who disagrees with us… we decide those that think differently are biased, through ideology, self-interest, malice or stubbornness. While we have considered the issue carefully, they are just proceeding from dogma. This perception of bias makes conflict and division escalate further and happens most clearly between competing interest groups, where it has been called the ‘devil shift’: seeing your opponents as more extreme and more ‘evil’ than they actually are’.

We could all do to read this quote on here from time to time. In fact in my opinion, it should be a sticky on this section of the forum!
 
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George Ross

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And before you say that I’m a climate change denying nutjob. I’m not.

‘The Behavioural Govt series by the Behavioural Insights Team talked about how we reject ideas from another group, even if they are good ideas:’If another party does not think the same way then our preferred reaction is not to reassess our own opinions. Instead, we try to come up with ways of denigrating the opposition. this happens because we find it hard to maintain both a positive image of ourselves and a positive image of someone who disagrees with us… we decide those that think differently are biased, through ideology, self-interest, malice or stubbornness. While we have considered the issue carefully, they are just proceeding from dogma. This perception of bias makes conflict and division escalate further and happens most clearly between competing interest groups, where it has been called the ‘devil shift’: seeing your opponents as more extreme and more ‘evil’ than they actually are’.

We could all do to read this quote on here from time to time. In fact in my opinion, it should be a sticky on this section of the forum!
Don’t know if you or netzerowatch (who are they?) read the report that it links to. But it appears to be a tiny cutting from a maldive newspaper. It says sea level rise of 20-30 cm in 30-40 years, and says Maldives are a metre above sea level. Not quite what you or netzero claim it to be. Appears to be on course to submerge later this century, as modelled. If that’s all you or netzerowatch are relying on.
 

Mer5eywhite

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Don’t know if you or netzerowatch (who are they?) read the report that it links to. But it appears to be a tiny cutting from a maldive newspaper. It says sea level rise of 20-30 cm in 30-40 years, and says Maldives are a metre above sea level. Not quite what you or netzero claim it to be. Appears to be on course to submerge later this century, as modelled. If that’s all you or netzerowatch are relying on.

Yes I read the tiny newspaper cutting. I also watched the other YouTube video and I read the following…
In September 1988, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported a “gradual rise in average sea level is threatening to completely cover this Indian Ocean nation of 1196 small islands within the next 30 years,” based on predictions made by government officials.


If I told you at 16 that cigarettes would be most likely to kill you in 60 years time then you would carry on smoking.

If I said they would kill you in the next 10 years, you would be more likely to quit.

The same is often done with climate modelling and was certainly done with COVID-19.
 

George Ross

Reserve
Yes I read the tiny newspaper cutting. I also watched the other YouTube video and I read the following…
In September 1988, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported a “gradual rise in average sea level is threatening to completely cover this Indian Ocean nation of 1196 small islands within the next 30 years,” based on predictions made by government officials.


If I told you at 16 that cigarettes would be most likely to kill you in 60 years time then you would carry on smoking.

If I said they would kill you in the next 10 years, you would be more likely to quit.

The same is often done with climate modelling and was certainly done with COVID-19.
So not what you or netzerowatch claimed? It does not link to any science. It is in line with current modelling that the Maldives will be under water within 30-40 years.
Who are netzerowatch? Is that the limit of their argument.
 

Portishead

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The point being that this was first predicted over 30 years ago.

You may wish to run around like Chicken Licken. That’s fine.

The key prediction is not whether we will become extinct since thats a given, but rather whether we will pay no heed to the impact of our current world order of things, continue to compete for ever diminishing resources, and then kill ourselves off through a war for resources. The impact we're having on those resources and climate is just accelerating that inevitability of conflict.
 
OP
Liberation

Liberation

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The key prediction is not whether we will become extinct since thats a given, but rather whether we will pay no heed to the impact of our current world order of things, continue to compete for ever diminishing resources, and then kill ourselves off through a war for resources. The impact we're having on those resources and climate is just accelerating that inevitability of conflict.

You made me think there Pete ( well done :) )....... We live in a world with some marvelous people in it that achieve unbelievable things that benefit mankind.. We should all be proud of that as human beings and as such we should advance as a race................. Unfortunately it's also full of greedy, self serving chunts that will ( I believe ) will see the end of the lot of us.

That's not a fact btw and is backed up with nothing but it is my thoughtful long ( or short) term theory...
 

Regardless

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I'm sure that you posted that with triumph in your heart :D

But it's a Pyrrhic victory!!! Your own link clearly shows that models predicted sea-level rises of between 20 and 30cm in that time... and that's exactly what has demonstrably happened. In terms of the dangers of climate change, the prediction that this "COULD" be a catastrophe was therefore perfectly fair, and the Maldives has only been saved because of an 'at-the-time' unknown phenomenon that the atolls were growing for unrelated reasons (to do with coral debris washing ashore) at a faster rate than sea-level rises were submerging them.

So yes... the Maldives are still there... through luck. This fundamental modelling was good, and no exaggeration was made when it was communicated to the public back in the eighties.
Downton Abbey Deal With It GIF by MASTERPIECE | PBS


:D
 
OP
Liberation

Liberation

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I'm sure that you posted that with triumph in your heart :D

But it's a Pyrrhic victory!!! Your own link clearly shows that models predicted sea-level rises of between 20 and 30cm in that time... and that's exactly what has demonstrably happened. In terms of the dangers of climate change, the prediction that this "COULD" be a catastrophe was therefore perfectly fair, and the Maldives has only been saved because of an 'at-the-time' unknown phenomenon that the atolls were growing for unrelated reasons (to do with coral debris washing ashore) at a faster rate than sea-level rises were submerging them.

So yes... the Maldives are still there... through luck. This fundamental modelling was good, and no exaggeration was made when it was communicated to the public back in the eighties.
Downton Abbey Deal With It GIF by MASTERPIECE | PBS


:D


Reg......... You are so wishy washy it's no wonder that you think the BBC is a fair and balanced news outlet... And how you find so many words to sit on the fence is an absolute credit to you... :ROFLMAO:
 

Winkytinky

GTTO
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Reg......... You are so wishy washy it's no wonder that you think the BBC is a fair and balanced news outlet... And how you find so many words to sit on the fence is an absolute credit to you... :ROFLMAO:
Are you accusing our reg of being a bit verbose ? Because I won't hear of it 😐
 
OP
Liberation

Liberation

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Are you accusing our reg of being a bit verbose ? Because I won't hear of it 😐


Certainly not ( I've done that too many times before zzzzzz ). but I am accusing him of being gullible and naive... Being " fair minded " with this pile of shite going on takes a really " special " kind of blinkers. :)

Starmer was even rumbled today for umpteen nonreporting discrepancies on money laundering............... All above board and simple mistakes apparently..... The type of things us plebs go to court for. Nothing to see and perfectly acceptable eh Reg? :D
 

raefil

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So not what you or netzerowatch claimed? It does not link to any science. It is in line with current modelling that the Maldives will be under water within 30-40 years.
Who are netzerowatch? Is that the limit of their argument.
To be honest, waltzy, myself and @Mer5eywhite often disagree on here and probably do on this one too but the difference is that Me5ey is a respected poster on here wheras youre, well, waltz :)
 

Mer5eywhite

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I'm sure that you posted that with triumph in your heart :D

But it's a Pyrrhic victory!!! Your own link clearly shows that models predicted sea-level rises of between 20 and 30cm in that time... and that's exactly what has demonstrably happened. In terms of the dangers of climate change, the prediction that this "COULD" be a catastrophe was therefore perfectly fair, and the Maldives has only been saved because of an 'at-the-time' unknown phenomenon that the atolls were growing for unrelated reasons (to do with coral debris washing ashore) at a faster rate than sea-level rises were submerging them.

So yes... the Maldives are still there... through luck. This fundamental modelling was good, and no exaggeration was made when it was communicated to the public back in the eighties.
Downton Abbey Deal With It GIF by MASTERPIECE | PBS


:D
Smoke this…
Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another . 13 inches (3.2 mm.) New research published on February 15, 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.Feb 15, 2022
1659739872997.png
https://www.nationalgeographic.com › ...

Sea level rise, facts and information - National Geographic


These are averages Reg.

Believe it or not sea levels in some areas have actually decreased. Not an easy thing sea level because land rises and falls.

Not triumphant at all. Nobody has asked anybody to smoke anything until you did.

23 cm in 142 years. Not 20 to 30 since 1988/9.

Just saying
 

Regardless

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Smoke this…
Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another . 13 inches (3.2 mm.) New research published on February 15, 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.Feb 15, 2022
View attachment 8682
https://www.nationalgeographic.com › ...

Sea level rise, facts and information - National Geographic


These are averages Reg.

Believe it or not sea levels in some areas have actually decreased. Not an easy thing sea level because land rises and falls.

Not triumphant at all. Nobody has asked anybody to smoke anything until you did.

23 cm in 142 years. Not 20 to 30 since 1988/9.

Just saying

Looking at those figures... I'm going to guess that when I typed into Google something like "sea level rise since 1980" - the first hit showed values for sea level rises since 1880 and I just didn't spot that tiny little, one-digit difference!! (because I remember it also said 23cm). I must have been smoking something good. Nevertheless, as you say, sea levels are difficult to measure. Satellite data is perhaps the most reliable and (from what I gather) is really available since 1993, showing just over 10cm in 30 years. Pretty frightening, though not 20cm.

But anyway... this is a moot point. Pretty irrelevant. Whilst I asked for ANY reference you could offer, the key point was that it wasn't a mainstream view that the Maldives would have disappeared by now. And if you're complaining that there has been alarmism from some climate-change quarters, then the headline/summary writers of that article you countered with is far worse in the opposite direction!

1659743591912.png

A/ According to the article itself, rhose government officials predicted that some low-lying areas of the Maldives...
B/ ..... COULD be swallowed up.
C/ ... and at the end of the article, there is a clear indication that the authors know that the reason the Maldives isn't flooded is because the land mass is increasing at a rate faster than it is being submerged... but they don't say that and leave it to the willing sceptic to draw wrong conclusion!

Clearly all designed mislead.

Look... fundamentally, I understand where you're coming from. There will be some exaggeration on both sides, and it would be better if everyone stuck to facts. On that, I think we could agree.
 

outreacher

Respect Nature
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Please link to where such a prediction had ANY sort of mainstream credence. In fact any sort of link would be a start.
There is a case of rising sea levels in the Pacific, causing concern.

At least eight low-lying islands in the Pacific Ocean have disappeared under rising seas.

Sea levels are currently climbing by an average of 3 millimetres per year around the world due to climate change. But they are creeping up even faster in the western Pacific, where a natural trade wind cycle has caused an extra build-up of water over the last half-century.
In Micronesia and the Solomon Islands, which lie in the western Pacific, sea levels have risen by up to 12 millimetres per year since the early 1990s.

In 2016, a study led by Simon Albert at the University of Queensland in Australia found that five of the Solomon Islands had been lost since the mid-20th century.

Now, Patrick Nunn at the University of the Sunshine Coast in Australia has observed a similar phenomenon in Micronesia.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...cific-islands-swallowed-whole-by-rising-seas/
 

Regardless

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Mer5eywhite

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Looking at those figures... I'm going to guess that when I typed into Google something like "sea level rise since 1980" - the first hit showed values for sea level rises since 1880 and I just didn't spot that tiny little, one-digit difference!! (because I remember it also said 23cm). I must have been smoking something good. Nevertheless, as you say, sea levels are difficult to measure. Satellite data is perhaps the most reliable and (from what I gather) is really available since 1993, showing just over 10cm in 30 years. Pretty frightening, though not 20cm.

But anyway... this is a moot point. Pretty irrelevant. Whilst I asked for ANY reference you could offer, the key point was that it wasn't a mainstream view that the Maldives would have disappeared by now. And if you're complaining that there has been alarmism from some climate-change quarters, then the headline/summary writers of that article you countered with is far worse in the opposite direction!

View attachment 8683

A/ According to the article itself, rhose government officials predicted that some low-lying areas of the Maldives...
B/ ..... COULD be swallowed up.
C/ ... and at the end of the article, there is a clear indication that the authors know that the reason the Maldives isn't flooded is because the land mass is increasing at a rate faster than it is being submerged... but they don't say that and leave it to the willing sceptic to draw wrong conclusion!

Clearly all designed mislead.

Look... fundamentally, I understand where you're coming from. There will be some exaggeration on both sides, and it would be better if everyone stuck to facts. On that, I think we could agree.

A very fair response and one I largely agree with.
 

outreacher

Respect Nature
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Climate change: Alps glaciers melting faster as heatwaves hit​

Melting glaciers in the Alps are on track for their highest mass losses in at least 60 years, according to data seen by Reuters.

The area saw two early summer heatwaves and little snowfall last winter.
Zermatt, a Swiss mountain village which usually sees July temperatures in the twenties, has had recent highs of 30C (86F).


https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ange-is-melting-the-alps-glaciers-in-pictures

 

Nobber

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Smoke this…
Average sea levels have swelled over 8 inches (about 23 cm) since 1880, with about three of those inches gained in the last 25 years. Every year, the sea rises another . 13 inches (3.2 mm.) New research published on February 15, 2022 shows that sea level rise is accelerating and projected to rise by a foot by 2050.Feb 15, 2022
View attachment 8682
https://www.nationalgeographic.com › ...

Sea level rise, facts and information - National Geographic


These are averages Reg.

Believe it or not sea levels in some areas have actually decreased. Not an easy thing sea level because land rises and falls.

Not triumphant at all. Nobody has asked anybody to smoke anything until you did.

23 cm in 142 years. Not 20 to 30 since 1988/9.

Just saying
How does land rise and sea level fall? Other than the tide going out I don’t get that bit?
 
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