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Millwall and Hull at home ........

Forest will lose at WBA , Brentford will draw at Brum and we will beat Millwall..... we will be 4th tomorrow night
 
The two games after are more daunting - WBA and Fulham, but then a few games that are winnable
 
Sure I read somewhere that pne hadn’t managed a single win against a Gary Rowett team since being promoted back to the championship, tough match and probably tough conditions , against a bogey manager, banker home win then 😀
 
The conditions are going to be tough tomorrow and will have a bearing on the outcome. Most likely won’t be a pretty game, so I hope we will be switched on for it. Need to keep the ball down and ping plenty of shots along the deck - always harder to deal with for the keeper in them conditions. It was Bristol at home that we played in similar conditions wasn’t it?
 
As things stand if we get 2 points per game over our final 14 games there’s a 1 in 3 chance we get automatic promotion. That would require 8 wins, 4 draws and allow 2 losses. Tiny increases in the points rate do a lot to improve those chances (2.07ppg = 1 in 2, 2.14 = 2 in 3, 2.21 = 3 in 4).

Meanwhile 1.4 points per game is enough to have a strong shout at playoffs (73 points is probably enough this year) and get in them 6 of 10 times, that’s 5 wins 5 draws 2 losses, or 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses. Again small increases in points per game drastically increase our chances of making the play offs. (1.5ppg = 8 in 10, 1.57ppg = 9 in 10, 1.64 = 95 in 100, 1.71 = 99 in 100, 1.79 = almost guaranteed).

Our current season’s PPG is 1.66 currently. Keep that up and we are almost certainly going to make the playoffs and 99 times out of 100 won’t make the automatics.

Our last 5 games we got 2.6 ppg (keep that up and we are definitely automatically promoted, probably champions).

Last 10 is 1.6ppg (95% chance of playoffs)
Last 14 is 1.57ppg (90% chance of playoffs)

Long story short, if we can keep up our long term form we can make the playoffs. If we can keep up our short term form we really could make automatics. It’s all to play for!
 
Mickypne said:
I want 6 mate. Don't fancy us at wba Fulham and Brentford away
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Let's not forget, we beat Fulham at home in what was in the main a good team performance. We suffered an incredible piece of injustice in the game against West Brom right at the death, so we owe them one. There are no Newcastle's in this division , no Wolves either. Nobody, an that includes the Baggies, are a stand out team this time round. So lets stop shifting ourselves about forthcoming away fixtures. If we can get through these next 2 home games without any key injuries, I think we can get something from Fulham an West Brom.
 
If we do get 2 wins in the next 2, and I know that is going to be a big ask, then WBA and Fulham will be very nervous when they play us..........we will have nothing to fear, they are at home and under pressure.
 
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