This corona virus thing...

Regardless

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The video in the Covid 19 statistics thread makes the claim that the virus arrived earlier than thought reached a peak in April and makes the claim.. by an Swiss Emeritus Prof of Epidemilogy that the curve that we see in almost all European countries is an indicator of "herd immunity".
Does this hark back to the reports way back (March/April?) where someone - maybe from Oxford? - was saying that maybe 90% of the Uk had been exposed? Is the Swiss guy making similar claims? And is this the basis for the school of thought that we locked down at exactly thr wrong time?

If the above is broadly true, are you able to put in a sentence how the majority of scientists have misunderstood it?
 

Snicky

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Has the emeritus professor of immunology spoken with the emeritus professor of epidemiology?
I imagine so.

He showed various examples and evidence of previous infection curves and how the virus plays out in areas not hit by recent flu outbreaks. The evidence shown in that video which has been pulled from many sources is very convincing and possible. And based around the premise that covid is not a novel virus.
 

Snicky

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Does this hark back to the reports way back (March/April?) where someone - maybe from Oxford? - was saying that maybe 90% of the Uk had been exposed? Is the Swiss guy making similar claims? And is this the basis for the school of thought that we locked down at exactly thr wrong time?

If the above is broadly true, are you able to put in a sentence how the majority of scientists have misunderstood it?
The consensus seems to be from that side of the argument is that the lockdown achieved little and was in the main pointless. The focus should have been on protecting the vulnerable. Like for flu.

I honestly recommend listening to or watching that video if you have and spare 90 minutes.
 

Sepp Blatter

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Has the emeritus professor of immunology spoken with the emeritus professor of epidemiology?
Contrary to popular belief in this age of experts, epidemiologists often don't know much about how viruses and the immune system works - you don't need a background in biology or medicine to specialise in that field. It turns out that's why the Imperial model is fatally flawed.

It's worth taking a look at the other thread, rather than repeating stuff on here, but I am inclined to agree with a lot of what the immunologist says, FWIW. It matches what I have seen in the research.
 

sliper

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Does this hark back to the reports way back (March/April?) where someone - maybe from Oxford? - was saying that maybe 90% of the Uk had been exposed? Is the Swiss guy making similar claims? And is this the basis for the school of thought that we locked down at exactly thr wrong time?

If the above is broadly true, are you able to put in a sentence how the majority of scientists have misunderstood it?
Its certainly an almost identical claim.. its a long video but worth watching. Both the interviewer and interviewee are aghast at what is going on.

The PROF (of Epidemimmunolgy ;) ) says he really doesn't understand why more of his colleagues are not saying it and loudly.

I think the reports in April came from the Oxford Uni CEBM Centre for Evidence based Medicine... they have been openly critical of the Imp Col model from day 1.


Quite extraordinary that Imp Col model is still being used while the Oxford Uni counter argument has been completely ignored..
 
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Sepp Blatter

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Its certainly an almost identical claim.. its a long video but worth watching. Both the interviewer and interviewee are aghast at what is going on.

The PROF (of Epidemimmunolgy ;) ) says he really doesn't understand why more of his colleagues are not saying it and loudly.

I think the reports in April came from the Oxford Uni CEBM Centre for Evidence based Medicine... they have been openly critical of the Imp Col model from day 1.


Quite extraordinary that Imp Col model is still being used while the Oxford Uni counter argument has been completely ignored..
The Imperial model should have been thrown out a long time ago - it is built upon a flawed assumption that renders the rest of the model almost entirely worthless.
 

raefil

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Around 500 revellers were inside the club on Saturday after the owners took legal action to overturn a council ban.
"We will be discussing that venue this week because we are really concerned," said DCC Woods.
"Preston are on the cusp of (new) restrictions this week and to open a venue to 500 young people with drink is just not helpful at all.
"We will see what happens this week. But it is not something that we are not going to ignore and we will be discussing if there is anything we can possibly do so that it doesn't happen again."
DCC Woods said Lancashire Police had had a busy weekend, being deployed to around 2,000 incidents across the county, around 100 of those Covid-related.


"The 100 was in itself quite a big rise for us compared to the previous weekend which had seen only around 10 Covid-related call-outs each day.
He also paid tribute to the Muslim community in Lancashire for the way it had respected the coronavirus restrictions despite it being Eid weekend.
"There were no particular incidents of note and so I would like to thank the Muslim community for the way they conducted themselves at the weekend under such testing circumstances for their celebration."

 

Nobber

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Why the fuck would anyone put a laughing emoji on care home testing? Especially when tens of thousands died because of this governments actions.

actually it’s only surprising that Kingpne and California haven’t added to the laughing!
Oh yeh, sorry missed off bumbum
 

portisheadpete

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Does the current increase in infections, and the drop in the number of deaths, suggest the virus in the UK is no longer as potent/deadly as it was?
Or are more people than before being tested and found to be positive but only with mild symptoms?
Or is the drop in the death rate down to better knowledge of how to care for and save the lives of the folk who get hospitalised?
Is it not simply that older people are generally being far more cautious now than in Feb and March when very few were changing their routine. Hence the severity of the symptoms generally is less since proportionately more young people are getting it now.
 

jgriff2296

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I am probably being a bit naive and I haven't read as much of the science as many on here but can someone explain to me that if the disease for whatever reason has mainly run it's course, burnt out or come close to reaching herd immunity (take your pick) we keep getting new outbreaks.
 

Snicky

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I am probably being a bit naive and I haven't read as much of the science as many on here but can someone explain to me that if the disease for whatever reason has mainly run it's course, burnt out or come close to reaching herd immunity (take your pick) we keep getting new outbreaks.
A lot of the cases seem to be asymptomatic cases from targeted testing and random testing.
There are still outbreaks in community but they are not converting into hospital admissions, icu treatment and deaths. After opening up in various waves we are yet to see any real negative impacts.
Thats my take anyway.
 

raefil

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I am probably being a bit naive and I haven't read as much of the science as many on here but can someone explain to me that if the disease for whatever reason has mainly run it's course, burnt out or come close to reaching herd immunity (take your pick) we keep getting new outbreaks.
Its a good question, what will be interesting to see as these spikes keep coming is what effect its going to have on causing serious illness.

I can only speak knowledgeably of RPH but admissions are down considerably, long term, and seem to be dropping short term too. From 8 in patients the week before to 5 as of last Friday.

Is the second wave going to be as virulent on health as the first?
 

Snicky

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Its a good question, what will be interesting to see as these spikes keep coming is what effect its going to have on causing serious illness.

I can only speak knowledgeably of RPH but admissions are down considerably, long term, and seem to be dropping short term too. From 8 in patients the week before to 5 as of last Friday.

Is the second wave going to be as virulent on health as the first?
And there is a growing consensus that there will not be a 2nd wave, its not normal for 2nd waves to occur.
 

Sepp Blatter

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I am probably being a bit naive and I haven't read as much of the science as many on here but can someone explain to me that if the disease for whatever reason has mainly run it's course, burnt out or come close to reaching herd immunity (take your pick) we keep getting new outbreaks.
The outbreaks (so far) are not large compared to the virus at its peak - and there is going to be a lot of regional variation. If we are approaching herd immunity (and that is still open to question), London will be much closer to herd immunity than Preston, for example.

You also have the issue of testing - it looks for RNA fragments, which can circulate in the body for weeks after your immune system fought and destroyed the virus.
 

jgriff2296

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A lot of the cases seem to be asymptomatic cases from targeted testing and random testing.
There are still outbreaks in community but they are not converting into hospital admissions, icu treatment and deaths. After opening up in various waves we are yet to see any real negative impacts.
Thats my take anyway.
What's your explanation for that?
 

raefil

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And there is a growing consensus that there will not be a 2nd wave, its not normal for 2nd waves to occur.
Yet we cannot ignore lessons from the Spanish flu that came in 3 waves, the 2nd of which was the more deadly.

Its fair to say that its dangerous to link the 2 pandemics though.
 
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