This corona virus thing...

jakehake

Preachs PA
Staff member
Patron
Because restrictions have been lifted, the more vulnerable have ventured out for the first time in over a year, people think once they are vaccinated they are invincible. When that was never the case and have ignored the advice.

That was my assumption but it seems not for others looking at some responses
 

raefil

Dolly Patron
Patron
Because restrictions have been lifted, the more vulnerable have ventured out for the first time in over a year, people think once they are vaccinated they are invincible. When that was never the case and have ignored the advice.
I followed all the advice down to the letter.

However the night club one of mine went to didn't.
 

Sepp Blatter

Liz Truss Groupie
Patron
Good question if this vaccine is supposed to offer such amazing protection.

We have…
Better treatment
Vaccinated population
Fewer vulnerable as many have already succumbed.

Yet more deaths????

Hmmmm
Might be the effects of lockdown, too - it delayed the problems but they were always going to come back once it was lifted.

It does appear that accepting the virus as endemic is more widespread - the governments of Australia and Singapore seem to have accepted that pursuing zero covid is unsustainable. Time to move to the next phase of mitigation rather than suppression.
 

Regardless

Forum Patron
Patron
Oh dear I suppose u was rather expecting it after Isreal data. Looks like they expect everyone to get Covid 19 and obviously boost their immune system through natural infection even if double jabbed. Not good news for immunocompromised or comorbidities

Sobering, well constructed video. Not looking forward to my turn to catch it.

So, without revisiting the internet for scientific explanations of natural herd immunity, I guess that only works with viruses that have a fairly low natural transmissibility - such that when, say, 80% of the population have had it then statistically, you are not in regular contact with the virus very often… and when you ARE in contact, statistically you are unlikely to be infected.

Based on that, they now believe the transmissibility of the new variants is above the threshold that can allow herd immunity- because even if 98% are protected, if you are unprotected and meet an infected person you’re very likely to catch it.

If I got that wrong, corrections welcome!
 

Sepp Blatter

Liz Truss Groupie
Patron
Sobering, well constructed video. Not looking forward to my turn to catch it.

So, without revisiting the internet for scientific explanations of natural herd immunity, I guess that only works with viruses that have a fairly low natural transmissibility - such that when, say, 80% of the population have had it then statistically, you are not in regular contact with the virus very often… and when you ARE in contact, statistically you are unlikely to be infected.

Based on that, they now believe the transmissibility of the new variants is above the threshold that can allow herd immunity- because even if 98% are protected, if you are unprotected and meet an infected person you’re very likely to catch it.

If I got that wrong, corrections welcome!
That is pretty much bang on, I think.

The problem is that the delta variant is very transmissible, but also that, if a few early studies emerging are correct, the vaccines do nothing to reduce the amount of virus someone sheds.

IMO, we now have to treat the vaccines more like flu jabs - something that alleviates symptoms rather than slowing transmission significantly.
 

Snicky

Hasa Diga Eebowai
Patron
Sobering, well constructed video. Not looking forward to my turn to catch it.

So, without revisiting the internet for scientific explanations of natural herd immunity, I guess that only works with viruses that have a fairly low natural transmissibility - such that when, say, 80% of the population have had it then statistically, you are not in regular contact with the virus very often… and when you ARE in contact, statistically you are unlikely to be infected.

Based on that, they now believe the transmissibility of the new variants is above the threshold that can allow herd immunity- because even if 98% are protected, if you are unprotected and meet an infected person you’re very likely to catch it.

If I got that wrong, corrections welcome!
There is an overwhelming possibility you won't even know you have it. Especially if you have been vaxxed.

Ther
 

Portishead

Advisor to the Owner
That is pretty much bang on, I think.

The problem is that the delta variant is very transmissible, but also that, if a few early studies emerging are correct, the vaccines do nothing to reduce the amount of virus someone sheds.

IMO, we now have to treat the vaccines more like flu jabs - something that alleviates symptoms rather than slowing transmission significantly.

Agreed. Theres nothing Ive seen fro this excellent video or elsewhere that suggests the vaccines dont provide a critical contribution to the mitigation. The comparisons of data from last year to this are erroneous given that the virus is now more transmissable and restrictions are totally lifted.
If you are to catch it which the video indicates might almost be inevitable, then ideally you catch it recently after vaccination and before you might develop another weakening condition as you can do suddeny as you start getting of an age. The sort of lottery that nobody really wants to join.
 

Regardless

Forum Patron
Patron
There is an overwhelming possibility you won't even know you have it. Especially if you have been vaxxed.

Ther

Is that true for someone mid-fifties?

I really think “overwhelming” is likely much much too strong a word - and actually, I would have guessed that my chances of being asymptotic would even be quite a bit less than 50/50. If I misunderstood, a link would be good!
 

Snicky

Hasa Diga Eebowai
Patron
Is that true for someone mid-fifties?

I really think “overwhelming” is likely much much too strong a word - and actually, I would have guessed that my chances of being asymptotic would even be quite a bit less than 50/50. If I misunderstood, a link would be good!
I have just been looking for the stats, apols I can't find them currently.

The official stats I'm sure are still that most people get it without knowing, no symptoms etc. The fact you have been jabbed means that if you do get symptoms are mild (even in raefil's case, still not nice) and the risk of serious illness is still low.

But, I have personally known more people get covid in this 3rd wave, after being vaxxed, than both of the 2 waves combined. Strange.
Even though they say you have only a 20% (ish) chance of catching it when vaxxed.
 

raefil

Dolly Patron
Patron
I have just been looking for the stats, apols I can't find them currently.

The official stats I'm sure are still that most people get it without knowing, no symptoms etc. The fact you have been jabbed means that if you do get symptoms are mild (even in raefil's case, still not nice) and the risk of serious illness is still low.

But, I have personally known more people get covid in this 3rd wave, after being vaxxed, than both of the 2 waves combined. Strange.
Even though they say you have only a 20% (ish) chance of catching it when vaxxed.
I think thats going to turn out to be bollox.
 

jgriff2296

Forum Patron
Patron
There is an overwhelming possibility you won't even know you have it. Especially if you have been vaxxed.

Ther
My son in law - early forties and double vaxxed - would take issue with that. He not only caught it but was pretty poorly with it. He is very grateful that he was double vaxxed otherwise it would undoubtedly have been much worse.
 

Sepp Blatter

Liz Truss Groupie
Patron
Agreed. Theres nothing Ive seen fro this excellent video or elsewhere that suggests the vaccines dont provide a critical contribution to the mitigation. The comparisons of data from last year to this are erroneous given that the virus is now more transmissable and restrictions are totally lifted.
If you are to catch it which the video indicates might almost be inevitable, then ideally you catch it recently after vaccination and before you might develop another weakening condition as you can do suddeny as you start getting of an age. The sort of lottery that nobody really wants to join.
All about changing the end goals, now - zero covid, as has been clear for a long time, is never going to happen. Trying to get the virus down to flu levels of danger should be the long term aim, IMO. Can we encourage that in any way?

And, asking some serious questions about vaccination (no doubt it is a useful weapon - it is how it is used that is important) - especially whether going for maximum levels of coverage is the way to go, away from the inane anti-vaxx/governmental sheep polarisation of debate.

Maybe looking at flu vaccines for some potential ideas - mainly the timing of giving shots, which is crucial, and that mass vaccination may merely allow other strains to take advantage and thrive (is Delta variant doing this for Covid?).

Also, the shots for potential different strains, that multiple vaccinations for the same strain can actually weaken the immune system's response to flu, and the idea that your first exposure to flu may actually 'set' your immune system for life, so that vaccines act differently on everyone.

There are many resources going into research - it is time to use them to answer these questions. We have fumbled in the dark for too long.
 

pnewortham

Forum Patron
Patron
It's no real surprise that the data, and now our lived experience, is taking us towards an endemic flu scenario.

Right from day 1, people tried to make the comparison with influenza but were generally accused of being distasteful or disrespecting the power of the virus to cause harm. But I think that was generally more to do with the discussion of whether covid was more or transmissible than flu. Or more or less deadly than flu. (Or simply denying it altogether.)

People didn't like those comparisons, in case it turned out to be a world-ender.

At that point we just didn't know.

But the comparison was still entirely valid from a biological perspective. We're now seeing us converge asymptotically towards the flu state. Can't banish it. Can't stop it spreading. It's a respiratory virus.

Still plenty to learn, but one thing I'd like to see is antibody testing on the entire population, in a single 24 hour period. (Yes, I know). Build a picture of our current immunity across the different variants, the effects of the vaccine, the basal population immune state.

To shed some light on what avalanche might lie ahead, or not.
 

raefil

Dolly Patron
Patron
My son in law - early forties and double vaxxed - would take issue with that. He not only caught it but was pretty poorly with it. He is very grateful that he was double vaxxed otherwise it would undoubtedly have been much worse.
Ive been very ill with it, and i mean ill as ive never felt like before.

First tested positive on the 18th and the past few days have been horrendous. My family have been very concerned.
 
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