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This corona virus thing...

Raab refusing to commit to guaranteeing everyone will receive a second dose of the vaccine within 12 weeks. I think we have to consider who is actually saying this, his levels of intelligence and history of total incompetence - but a little disconcerting nonetheless.
Pfizer are modifying their production line so they can produce more, this apparently will cause a lag in distribution. Could it be because of this he can’t Guarantee it?
 
My sister - who works at St.James Hospital in Leeds had her first on Thursday. My daughter in law works for the NHS in Manchester working with profoundly disabled children, her's is booked for this coming week. Quite a few people I know in the 80+ age range have either had or are booked in for theirs. Surely even this incompetent set of shisters must get this right.
 
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Meanwhile at RPH ICU theyre at their limit and are now having to find other hospitals for ICU patients.

RPH has had to cancel elective surgeries scheduled for local private hospitals, this week.
 
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Meanwhile at RPH ICU theyre at their limit and are now having to find other hospitals for ICU patients.

RPH has had to cancel elective surgeries scheduled for local private hospitals, this week.

Wearing masks outside isn’t something that particularly bothers me either way. However, we’ve been told to keep our distance outside and avoid crowded areas. What does this idiot do? Go out to a crowded park to play football, without a mask and without seemingly keeping his distance.
 
Raab refusing to commit to guaranteeing everyone will receive a second dose of the vaccine within 12 weeks. I think we have to consider who is actually saying this, his levels of intelligence and history of total incompetence - but a little disconcerting nonetheless.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if the process goes tits up somehow but let's hope it doesn't.
 
Just heard that a couple in our cul de sac (probably late 70's, possibly early 80's) have had covid. They think they got it over Xmas, but I wouldn't know. It's wiped them out but not hospitalised them.
 
- Cases: 3,395,959 (+38,598)
- Average Cases: 46,230.57
- Deaths (28-day): 89,261 (+671)
- Deaths (60-day): 97,494 (+714)
- Average Deaths: 1,118.57
- Vaccine [1st dose]: 3,857,266 (+298,087)
- Vaccine [2nd dose]: 449,736 (+2,475)
 
THREAD: on the connection between age, infection, hospitalisation, death and vaccination...

TLDR: it matters! so read 7 tweets :)

Each bar in the charts shows the proportion of people in each of the coloured age categories. 1/7
Confirmed cases are more likely to be working age adults & older teenagers. Young kids (esp pre-school) less likely to show symptoms (& get tested) & poss less likely to get infected. Over 65s less likely to be exposed.

Vaccinating >70s is *not* going to stop Covid cases. 2/7Image
But although relatively few people over 65 get infected, they are the majority of people in *hospital* with Covid - they're much more likely to get really sick.

Vaccinating >70s WILL relieve a lot of pressure on hospitals (by March).

We still need to drive cases down NOW. 3/7Image
But there's more to it. V few people 85+ are in ICU & only 25% of people in ICU are >70. This isn't rationing (true for non crowded times too) - it's cos v frail people v unlikely to get better after ICU.

So vaccinating >70s WON'T help ICUs much. Need to vax middle aged! 4/7Image
Finally, deaths are a different story again. This time the large majority of people dying from covid are over 70.

Vaccinating the over 70s will make a *huge* difference to covid deaths. This is what is driving the vax strategy.

BUT.... 5/7Image
Ever since Xmas case numbers are accelarating in over 80s (only age group to increase!) as are outbreaks in care homes.

Might be from seeing elderly loved ones over Xmas?

Really is race against time to protect >80s 6/7ImageImage
Finally - just cos vaccinating >70s prevents most deaths it does NOT mean it's fine for everyone else to get Covid.

A) 5-10% people get long Covid which is grim
B) every person who gets it is an extra chance for covid to mutate into a worse strain. 7/7
DATA: I've used population age data from ONS, ages of people who test positive, are admitted to hospital & ICU (PHE), ages for covid deaths (ONS)

PS shielding people being vaccinated along with 70+ by mid Feb
PPS used data since start October 2020


Some really interesting information there, thanks. One thing - and as a middle aged man, I have to declare an interest - but on the basis of that analysis, I wonder if they should indeed be prioritising the middle-aged who are filling ICUs.

Easy to say that would be abandoning old people. But right now, our NHS is overwhelmed - with huge consequences for staff - and perhaps bigger consequences for the treatment of people with other conditions.

In the medium term, I suspect that that approach might save lives overall - some added COVID deaths more than offset. Wonder if they would model that - or is it a political non-starter?
 
Some really interesting information there, thanks. One thing - and as a middle aged man, I have to declare an interest - but on the basis of that analysis, I wonder if they should indeed be prioritising the middle-aged who are filling ICUs.

Easy to say that would be abandoning old people. But right now, our NHS is overwhelmed - with huge consequences for staff - and perhaps bigger consequences for the treatment of people with other conditions.

In the medium term, I suspect that that approach might save lives overall - some added COVID deaths more than offset. Wonder if they would model that - or is it a political non-starter?

I think it's more a case that those over 70 and shielding or in care homes simply cannot do any more to protect themselves so are being given the additional support of a vaccine, where as those who are slightly younger could (but are seemingly choosing not to) do more.

It's probably fair to say they're using the roll out to the elderly to iron out any logistical teething problems first with a smaller group, incase things went wrong or, as appears to be the case, the vaccine needed tweaking slightly for the remainder of the population.
 
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Still to be peer reviewed but I don't know what the normal readmission rate is for other respiratory diseases or infections. 1/3 readmitted within 140 days, 1/8 dying (pinch of salt with the Sky statisticians who have decided 12.3% rounds to 1 in 10)

 
Parts of Brazil are being swamped again, read there was a point when they thought, due to the number of cases that they had reached herd immunity and relaxed a bit. Seems they are paying for that now.
 
Another interesting hypothetical question would be “Give Margaret Thatcher the choice of the current Johnson regime or a Jeremy Corbyn government- which would she prefer?” I think she would not be so quick to answer as some might think.

I think she must be turning in her grave, seeing this unprincipled rabble, tearing the nations of the uk apart. Ultimately she would pick Johnson - but I think she would identify with Corbyn’s conviction to a cause.
 
Not seen anything really mentioned before about Covid in kids so this may be useful.

My closest friend's daughter and grandkids all tested positive last week, and he's just told me about their symptoms:

"Its the new variant she had cos all the kids had symptoms XXX 13 was dizzy and coughing, XXX 7 kept having nose bleeds, even XXX 6 months was coughing..."

Not seen nosebleeds mentioned as a symptom before but if adults suffer a loss of smell and this new variant does affect kids more, perhaps it is something to be aware of?
 
Another interesting hypothetical question would be “Give Margaret Thatcher the choice of the current Johnson regime or a Jeremy Corbyn government- which would she prefer?” I think she would not be so quick to answer as some might think.

I think she must be turning in her grave, seeing this unprincipled rabble, tearing the nations of the uk apart. Ultimately she would pick Johnson - but I think she would identify with Corbyn’s conviction to a cause.
She'd pick Starmer.
 
She'd pick Starmer.
I deliberately didn’t go there!

I really think she would hate the current government. If Thatcher was able to have 10 minutes in a private room with Johnson, she’d have had her handbag out- and he’d leave as a quivering piece of jelly.

No one would spot the difference though.
 
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