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Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Adam .

Manager
Let's be honest, this gig has been going on since 2014 when Crimea was sneakily invaded and annexed by Ivan declared part of Russia following a dubious separatist movement & referendum.

It's been simmering away in the east of the country also with Russian backed separatists since then also.

But unless you've been living under a rock you'll have no-doubt seen it is very much coming back into the mix with the news with what we're told is an almost imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, potentially on as many of three fronts.

Lots of diplomatic shuffling going on at present, whilst the RAF amongst others has been busy flying in defensive weapons - specifically stuff to engage armoured vehicles, which Russian has an abundance of.

What does the forum make of it all? All going to blow over or are things about to hot up?
 

Mer5eywhite

Forum Patron
Patron
I very much doubt NATO or anybody else will get involved except in sanctions etc.
Putin has Europe by the balls and there are so many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine that he was never going to tolerate increased western influence in the country. The Crimea is his only warm water port and he will not be the leader who loses that. We have backed the Russians into a corner since the fall of the communist bloc in 89-91. We were lucky that they didn't react when the Baltic states and Poland joined the EU which trapped half a million Russians in the Kaliningrad exclave. Since then they have strengthened and enjoy the fact that much of Europe relies on them for gas, to a greater or lesser extent. Trading gas with China now means that he can switch off Europe and not suffer too much financial hardship.

If he ever gets in bed with Erdogan then he'll not only have us by the balls but cut them off :)

Great answer by Kingjed too - priorities and all that.
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
I very much doubt NATO or anybody else will get involved except in sanctions etc.
Putin has Europe by the balls and there are so many ethnic Russians in the Ukraine that he was never going to tolerate increased western influence in the country. The Crimea is his only warm water port and he will not be the leader who loses that. We have backed the Russians into a corner since the fall of the communist bloc in 89-91. We were lucky that they didn't react when the Baltic states and Poland joined the EU which trapped half a million Russians in the Kaliningrad exclave. Since then they have strengthened and enjoy the fact that much of Europe relies on them for gas, to a greater or lesser extent. Trading gas with China now means that he can switch off Europe and not suffer too much financial hardship.

If he ever gets in bed with Erdogan then he'll not only have us by the balls but cut them off :)

Great answer by Kingjed too - priorities and all that.
Hopefully, that won't happen! Putin is far too wily for that, I suspect - he would piss off too many other allies by becoming too close to Erdogan. Greece, Syria, Armenia, and Bulgaria, for a start. Think he will keep the mini-Sultan at arm's length.
 

daddyman16

Advisor to the Owner
I've been keeping an eye on the region on Flightradar24, the US and RAF have been all over the place. Surveillance planes, NATO surveillance drones, big whopping Globemaster planes landing in Kiev daily.

There's a lot of effort going into this if it's just ending with sanctions.

In other, but possibly not necessarily irrelevant, news, did anyone notice the Model 351 Stratolaunch being tested out in the Mojave desert? 🤔
 

pnesaint

Advisor to the Owner
Belarus is the new Austria, Ukraine is the new Czechoslovakia. Who will be the new Poland? The Baltic States? Poland (again)?

Britain won't go to war again over Eastern Europe.

If you remove nuclear weapons from the equation the Russian military isn't that powerful. The navy has been left to rot, the air force and special forces are ok but a lot of the ordinary troops are conscripts. Plus Europe has far more man power reserves should it get involved in a war of attrition. Russia would be mad to start a general conflict. I guess Putin is weighing up whether Europe will act in unison or do a Chamberlain.

My money would be on the latter.
 
OP
A

Adam .

Manager
I've been keeping an eye on the region on Flightradar24, the US and RAF have been all over the place. Surveillance planes, NATO surveillance drones, big whopping Globemaster planes landing in Kiev daily.

There's a lot of effort going into this if it's just ending with sanctions.

In other, but possibly not necessarily irrelevant, news, did anyone notice the Model 351 Stratolaunch being tested out in the Mojave desert? 🤔

You may have to fill in a knowledge gap for me here, what is it?
 

daddyman16

Advisor to the Owner
You may have to fill in a knowledge gap for me here, what is it?

It's an aircraft with a massive wingspan that to my knowledge will be used to launch hypersonic vehicles from a high altitude. While those vehicles could be for space travel or studying space, the US Department of Defence is one of the clients expected to use these unmanned vehicles.
Some countries already have hypersonic missiles, so I guess it's a bit of a Space Race type situation going on.
 

pnesaint

Advisor to the Owner

"The UK has no intention of letting Ukraine fall". Other than sending advisors and a few specialists the UK can do sod-all about it. Britain can't even make physical contact with Ukraine other than a few paltry flights which will be of no use if war breaks out.

Meanwhile Sleepy Joe, in his senile stupor, mumbles on about sanctions - wow that will really have Vladimir quaking in his boots. We all know how quick sanctions are to work! It took four years plus for the ultimate sanction - naval blockade - to work in WW1 and Germany didn't have the resources that Russia has. Plus Russia could apply far more effective sanctions against Europe by simply turning off the gas.

Ukraine isn't in NATO so we have no obligation to come to her aid. Russia can do as it pleases without fear of a military response.
 

pnesaint

Advisor to the Owner
Didn’t the U.K. and US guarantee Ukraines sovereignty if they gave up the inherited nuclear weapons?

I don't know. Possibly but it's the first I've heard of it.

Even so the problem of making contact with Ukraine remains the same. Taking ships into the Black Sea would be suicide and going through our NATO partners territory might invite Russia to attack them so I think that would be unlikely too. The switching off of the gas would be a big deterrent as well.
 

pnesaint

Advisor to the Owner
From the Russian point of view now would be the perfect time to attack. The countries of the west are mired in covid and other related domestic issues. Everyone is fed up with Britain for leaving the EU, the EU itself is riven with disagreement over migration and other issues. Apart from the US and to a lesser extent Britain and France the military in Europe is underfunded and not ready to fight. Plus Russia is effectively a dictatorship so doesn't need to worry about public opinion - unless things go disastrously wrong.

On top of all that Wobbly Joe and Bungling Boris are hardly Roosevelt and Churchill!

In any potential Ukraine conflict the only winners would be the Chinese. Both of its main rivals weakened plus it would be able to sell war materiel to both sides so boosting its own economy and enhancing its position in the world.
 

Liberation

Forum Patron
Patron
He`ll be quaking in his boots now lol

Said the same at work today... Funny as fook but having said that. why when two parties are sitting down and talking about it ( as futile as it may be ) why is every dick and his dog gobbing off with inflammatory comments?... My cynical side is thinking " deflection " yet again.
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
Said the same at work today... Funny as fook but having said that. why when two parties are sitting down and talking about it ( as futile as it may be ) why is every dick and his dog gobbing off with inflammatory comments?... My cynical side is thinking " deflection " yet again.
Same here - very convenient timing when governments need to distract us away from covid and their poor handling of it!
 
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