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Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
If Ukraine does succeed in taking back some (or all) territory, surely the only way to some sort of stability is for zero discrimination against any of their own population- Russian-speaking or not.

Hoping we are among loud voices pressing this message home.
I would hope so - to be fair, some of the British and US press were pretty fair in their reporting of atrocities by both sides before the invasion. I hope that they continue in the same vein.

Unfortunately, some of the rhetoric from Ukrainian politicians has been less promising - as posted earlier, the claims that anyone accepting humanitarian aid from Russia is a collaborator, and some of the reports we have seen on Greek news about the actions of some military units raise concerns. From what I can make out, many Russian-speakers are terrified of what may happen. I trust Zelensky as little as I trust Putin.

The problem with this situation, like the Balkans, Cyprus, and Northern Ireland, is that it didn't simply start from nothing - it has been building up for a while with growing distrust between communities. There are no easy solutions and dividing it into a simple us against them conflict is not a good place to start.
 

outreacher

Respect Nature
Patron
I know this sounds really picky but to add a bit more depth, 'Russian speakers' doesn't necessarily equate to 'Russian supporters'.

A lot of people, particularly in the East of the country and of a certain age only learnt Russian. Even in places like Kiev there are a lot of Russian only speakers who I assume hate Russia.

Also on a smaller scale, there will be people who have Russian family and friends but won't support Russia's actions.

Reading around it seems the suppression of Russian as an official language was a huge mis-step by Ukraine which did provoke those with Russian sympathies but it's easy to assume Russian speakers are united when they may not be.
The situation is very complicated, almost 20% of Ukraine is Ethic Russian, in Donetsk ethnic Russians amount to 38%, Kharkiv 25%. That doesn't mean that they are pro Russia, obviously. A lot of the problems arose, after the Maiden rebellion, and the banning of the Russian language, and discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.

Many Ukrainians have family both in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian forces also are split, a bit like the British occupation of NI, many British troops, have Irish heritage and policing NI was not a thing the troops wanted to do. Moral amongst the Russian troops is very low, they don't want to be there, fighting against your own kind. Outside the Azov battalions, there are other battalions comprising ethnic Russians fighting for Ukraine against Putin, they want a free Russia, so there is a lot of Russians fighting Russians.

Putin got it all wrong, he should have looked at history, it took Hitler about 4/5 months to take Ukraine, even though The Russian forces had retreated out of Ukraine into Russia. Hitler had 3 million soldiers, constant bombing by 2,500 Luftwaffe, and over 3,000 tanks. Putin tried it with just over 100k soldiers. Ukraine is being supplied by Nato and have the best weapons available to sustain any offensive operation.

Putin has blown it, and unless he mounts a massive attack with troops from other parts of Russia, Russian military personnel amount to over 2 million, with about 1.2 million active servicemen. Apparently he has mobilised another 137,000 troops for Ukraine. Possibly the Federation Council or State Duma, whatever it is called, might have had enough of Putin, there is a lot of opposition and, who knows he could be removed forcibly, assassinated.

It's a dodgy situation, an escalation could get out of control, but that is where it is heading, unless a ceasefire takes place and negotiations begin, can't see that happening, Russia withdraws, can't see that happening either. Putin has made cock up after cock up, and his ego is badly mauled, a cornered dog is very dangerous, the situation isn't good to say the least.
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
This conflict threatens to kick off again:


The problem is that Russia is a guarantor of Armenia's territory (excluding the contested enclave) according to a treaty, while Erdogan is a strong supporter of Azerbaijan - both countries have agreements with NATO. It is a very messy situation.
 

Regardless

Forum Patron
Patron
The situation is very complicated, almost 20% of Ukraine is Ethic Russian, in Donetsk ethnic Russians amount to 38%, Kharkiv 25%. That doesn't mean that they are pro Russia, obviously. A lot of the problems arose, after the Maiden rebellion, and the banning of the Russian language, and discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.

Many Ukrainians have family both in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian forces also are split, a bit like the British occupation of NI, many British troops, have Irish heritage and policing NI was not a thing the troops wanted to do. Moral amongst the Russian troops is very low, they don't want to be there, fighting against your own kind. Outside the Azov battalions, there are other battalions comprising ethnic Russians fighting for Ukraine against Putin, they want a free Russia, so there is a lot of Russians fighting Russians.

Putin got it all wrong, he should have looked at history, it took Hitler about 4/5 months to take Ukraine, even though The Russian forces had retreated out of Ukraine into Russia. Hitler had 3 million soldiers, constant bombing by 2,500 Luftwaffe, and over 3,000 tanks. Putin tried it with just over 100k soldiers. Ukraine is being supplied by Nato and have the best weapons available to sustain any offensive operation.

Putin has blown it, and unless he mounts a massive attack with troops from other parts of Russia, Russian military personnel amount to over 2 million, with about 1.2 million active servicemen. Apparently he has mobilised another 137,000 troops for Ukraine. Possibly the Federation Council or State Duma, whatever it is called, might have had enough of Putin, there is a lot of opposition and, who knows he could be removed forcibly, assassinated.

It's a dodgy situation, an escalation could get out of control, but that is where it is heading, unless a ceasefire takes place and negotiations begin, can't see that happening, Russia withdraws, can't see that happening either. Putin has made cock up after cock up, and his ego is badly mauled, a cornered dog is very dangerous, the situation isn't good to say the least.

Quite a few things that seem reasonable opinions but do you have anything to support them?
 

Regardless

Forum Patron
Patron
Concerning how so many countries joined Russia for a summit. But interesting comment from Putin - according to the BBC 6 o’clock news.

Apparently Putin thanked China for taking a balanced view about the conflict- but admitted that China had expressed ”some concerns” about it.

What does that mean? Is it another of his mind games? Is it just a statement of fact? Is it maybe Putin signalling he might be ready to try to negotiate? Or something else?

It certainly sounds significant to me.
 

Summat

First Team
The situation is very complicated, almost 20% of Ukraine is Ethic Russian, in Donetsk ethnic Russians amount to 38%, Kharkiv 25%. That doesn't mean that they are pro Russia, obviously. A lot of the problems arose, after the Maiden rebellion, and the banning of the Russian language, and discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.

Many Ukrainians have family both in Russia and Ukraine, the Russian forces also are split, a bit like the British occupation of NI, many British troops, have Irish heritage and policing NI was not a thing the troops wanted to do. Moral amongst the Russian troops is very low, they don't want to be there, fighting against your own kind. Outside the Azov battalions, there are other battalions comprising ethnic Russians fighting for Ukraine against Putin, they want a free Russia, so there is a lot of Russians fighting Russians.

Putin got it all wrong, he should have looked at history, it took Hitler about 4/5 months to take Ukraine, even though The Russian forces had retreated out of Ukraine into Russia. Hitler had 3 million soldiers, constant bombing by 2,500 Luftwaffe, and over 3,000 tanks. Putin tried it with just over 100k soldiers. Ukraine is being supplied by Nato and have the best weapons available to sustain any offensive operation.

Putin has blown it, and unless he mounts a massive attack with troops from other parts of Russia, Russian military personnel amount to over 2 million, with about 1.2 million active servicemen. Apparently he has mobilised another 137,000 troops for Ukraine. Possibly the Federation Council or State Duma, whatever it is called, might have had enough of Putin, there is a lot of opposition and, who knows he could be removed forcibly, assassinated.

It's a dodgy situation, an escalation could get out of control, but that is where it is heading, unless a ceasefire takes place and negotiations begin, can't see that happening, Russia withdraws, can't see that happening either. Putin has made cock up after cock up, and his ego is badly mauled, a cornered dog is very dangerous, the situation isn't good to say the least.

The Russian language has not been banned in Ukraine, you are just repeating Lavrov's propaganda, before independence Russian was the official language, not only in Ukraine but all Soviet states, most Poles speak Russian as it was the language of the Education system, media etc, Russia suppressed all native languages of these states.

Ukraine passed laws in 2019, 2021 that made Ukrainian the official language, to be used in Education, public services, media etc., nothing to do with the maiden revolution, when Ukrainian citizens overthrew the corrupt Russian puppets, there is nothing that stops Russian being used, in the media only that it must be accompanied by Ukrainian.
 

outreacher

Respect Nature
Patron
The Russian language has not been banned in Ukraine, you are just repeating Lavrov's propaganda, before independence Russian was the official language, not only in Ukraine but all Soviet states, most Poles speak Russian as it was the language of the Education system, media etc, Russia suppressed all native languages of these states.

Ukraine passed laws in 2019, 2021 that made Ukrainian the official language, to be used in Education, public services, media etc., nothing to do with the maiden revolution, when Ukrainian citizens overthrew the corrupt Russian puppets, there is nothing that stops Russian being used, in the media only that it must be accompanied by Ukrainian.
Thanks for the response, I don't know if you are right or wrong, I will probably try to resurrect my sources over the next few days. I never listen to Lavrov or Putin, quite frankly I don't give a shit. I do know the history of Russia and Ukraine, and that is far as it goes. The whole thing is pretty much a proxy war, and probably Nato will win eventually.

I will dig out my sources from saved info, when I have the time to look, it's a complicated situation, and there are opposing views, by Ukrainians, on both sides of the war.

I will certainly back up my statements or admit I was wrong if that is the case.
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
The Russian language has not been banned in Ukraine, you are just repeating Lavrov's propaganda, before independence Russian was the official language, not only in Ukraine but all Soviet states, most Poles speak Russian as it was the language of the Education system, media etc, Russia suppressed all native languages of these states.

Ukraine passed laws in 2019, 2021 that made Ukrainian the official language, to be used in Education, public services, media etc., nothing to do with the maiden revolution, when Ukrainian citizens overthrew the corrupt Russian puppets, there is nothing that stops Russian being used, in the media only that it must be accompanied by Ukrainian.
Agreed - it hasn't been banned. However, there has been a campaign by Ukrainian governments to try to attack minority languages - not just Russian, btw, but also Greek, which is why those laws have received a lot of coverage and criticism in the media here over the past few years. There are many things that I find distasteful.
When you dig down into some of the other laws, things become more concerning - enough for for various NGOs and the UN to express concerns because minority languages often need protecting from the majority language.

So, for example, a wee while ago, I saw an interview with an ethnic Greek in Ukraine who produces a Greek language newspaper aimed at the Greek community. He now has to pay for it to be translated and published in Ukrainian even though nobody is going to read those versions and believed he would actually have to shut down. Imagine the outcry if the UK government demanded that a Scots Gaelic newspaper had to be available in English.

The other issue is insisting that bookshops must have at least half of the books they sell in Ukrainian. Again, why should a bookshop have to spend money buying stock that its customers are not interested in buying? This all smacks of linguistic nationalism/imperialism. Ukraine wants to join the EU - yet, under EU resolutions, its language laws go directly against the EU's idea of protecting minority languages. The Council of Europe has also criticised them, arguing that the laws are very divisive.

Attacking minority languages has a long and lamentable history as an insidious attack on minorities. I don't care for it at all.
 

Summat

First Team
Agreed - it hasn't been banned. However, there has been a campaign by Ukrainian governments to try to attack minority languages - not just Russian, btw, but also Greek, which is why those laws have received a lot of coverage and criticism in the media here over the past few years. There are many things that I find distasteful.
When you dig down into some of the other laws, things become more concerning - enough for for various NGOs and the UN to express concerns because minority languages often need protecting from the majority language.

So, for example, a wee while ago, I saw an interview with an ethnic Greek in Ukraine who produces a Greek language newspaper aimed at the Greek community. He now has to pay for it to be translated and published in Ukrainian even though nobody is going to read those versions and believed he would actually have to shut down. Imagine the outcry if the UK government demanded that a Scots Gaelic newspaper had to be available in English.

The other issue is insisting that bookshops must have at least half of the books they sell in Ukrainian. Again, why should a bookshop have to spend money buying stock that its customers are not interested in buying? This all smacks of linguistic nationalism/imperialism. Ukraine wants to join the EU - yet, under EU resolutions, its language laws go directly against the EU's idea of protecting minority languages. The Council of Europe has also criticised them, arguing that the laws are very divisive.

Attacking minority languages has a long and lamentable history as an insidious attack on minorities. I don't care for it at all.
My answer was aimed at the specific claim that russian was banned in the Ukraine, but I would counter your argument that it is a natural reaction to decades of suppression suffered under the soviets, and an attempt to re-establish a national language in respect of governance, judicial, education and health systems.

Measures to protect some minority languages such as English, and the official languages of the European union, which incidently insists that all administration is conducted in English, French and German, it is appreciated that Greek, and others, publications have to be accompanied by an equivalent in Ukrainian, and at this may seem unfair but not all of the Greeks living in Ukraine (0.2% of the population) speak Greek as they have been there for several generations, maybe that is an opportunity to expand circulation.

The edict that says that newstands, libraries etc have to make available at least 50% of publications in the Ukrainian language also gives provision that 50% can also be in a non Ukrainian language, I defy you to go into any European or American newstand, library or bookshop and identify any that do not stock the majority of their content in the indigenous language, the only country I can identify that gives complete freedom to languages, with the exception of governance, justice and health services is the Netherlands.

Incidentally these measures were introduced by Poroshenko before Zelensky who is a Russian speaker, and conducted his presidential campaign in Russian, and the comedy sitcom in which he starred was also in Russian,
 
Thanks for the response, I don't know if you are right or wrong, I will probably try to resurrect my sources over the next few days. I never listen to Lavrov or Putin, quite frankly I don't give a shit. I do know the history of Russia and Ukraine, and that is far as it goes. The whole thing is pretty much a proxy war, and probably Nato will win eventually.

I will dig out my sources from saved info, when I have the time to look, it's a complicated situation, and there are opposing views, by Ukrainians, on both sides of the war.

I will certainly back up my statements or admit I was wrong if that is the case.
Take no notice, it's george ross' other account
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
My answer was aimed at the specific claim that russian was banned in the Ukraine, but I would counter your argument that it is a natural reaction to decades of suppression suffered under the soviets, and an attempt to re-establish a national language in respect of governance, judicial, education and health systems.

Measures to protect some minority languages such as English, and the official languages of the European union, which incidently insists that all administration is conducted in English, French and German, it is appreciated that Greek, and others, publications have to be accompanied by an equivalent in Ukrainian, and at this may seem unfair but not all of the Greeks living in Ukraine (0.2% of the population) speak Greek as they have been there for several generations, maybe that is an opportunity to expand circulation.

The edict that says that newstands, libraries etc have to make available at least 50% of publications in the Ukrainian language also gives provision that 50% can also be in a non Ukrainian language, I defy you to go into any European or American newstand, library or bookshop and identify any that do not stock the majority of their content in the indigenous language, the only country I can identify that gives complete freedom to languages, with the exception of governance, justice and health services is the Netherlands.

Incidentally these measures were introduced by Poroshenko before Zelensky who is a Russian speaker, and conducted his presidential campaign in Russian, and the comedy sitcom in which he starred was also in Russian,
So, because the Soviets did it, then the Ukrainians should too - that isn't a good look. It was wrong when the Soviets did it and it is wrong now. None of your points really do anything to challenge my overall argument - that the idea of using a language to reinforce a national identity can be a very insidious way of attacking the identity of others. That is exactly why the Soviets did it.

Contrast the way in which Belgium, Switzerland, and other European countries treat languages, especially when involving sizeable minorities. They don't try to raise one above the other, but seek to accommodate all. Not perfect, because linguistic identity is a sensitive topic, but better than the option Ukraine chose - which is why Poroshenko took that route and admitted that it was to develop a national identity. Incidentally, Tymoshenko had a far better understanding of the nuances and was far more willing to compromise. The Greeks have been in Ukraine for more than several generations, btw. They lived there, speaking Greek, long before the Ukrainian language even existed! Why isn't their language given the same rights as Crimean Tatar, as an indigenous language?

Not sure where you get your idea of linguistic freedom from. I have been in many bookstores in the UK and Europe that are mostly in a different language, whether Scots Gaelic, Hebrew, Urdu, or many other languages with no other compulsion to stock books written in the majority language. I know many publishers focusing on a minority language who are not told to produce over 50% of titles in the majority language. I don't recall anybody telling a film-maker that they can only use up to 10% of a minority language in a film. As I said, these laws have received criticism from many bodies - and there would be an outcry if other European countries treated minority languages in the same way.

That is one of the reasons why I do not like Zelensky - another one of those modern slick politicians who makes promises people want to hear, then does the opposite.
 

daddyman16

Advisor to the Owner
Not a conflict I know a lot about - but such violence over water rights may become more common in future years :(

It would seem reading up on it that this whole thing goes back to the late 90s, early 00s, when a Uzbek Islamist guerilla type group targeted Batken, an area of Kyrgyzstan which has an ethnic Uzbek population. I imagine they probably wanted to take the region and absorb it into a potential Uzbek Islamic State. Russia naturally came to help Kyrgyzstan and the guerillas were flushed out to neighbouring Tajikistan.
I'm guessing the issues that now have arisen between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are a spillover from that, maybe guerillas in Tajikistan continuing attacks from there instead of Uzbekistan?

Complex if correct, much like war in general.
 

Sepp Blatter

Ursula Fanboy
Patron
It would seem reading up on it that this whole thing goes back to the late 90s, early 00s, when a Uzbek Islamist guerilla type group targeted Batken, an area of Kyrgyzstan which has an ethnic Uzbek population. I imagine they probably wanted to take the region and absorb it into a potential Uzbek Islamic State. Russia naturally came to help Kyrgyzstan and the guerillas were flushed out to neighbouring Tajikistan.
I'm guessing the issues that now have arisen between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are a spillover from that, maybe guerillas in Tajikistan continuing attacks from there instead of Uzbekistan?

Complex if correct, much like war in general.
Reading into it more deeply, it does not surprise me that Erdogan has been stirring things up as he has with Azerbaijan/Armenia. Let's hope this doesn't become yet another proxy conflict.
 

norky84

Advisor to the Owner
Probably a stupid question. But how come Biden won't send US troops to help Ukraine, but recently he said he will send US troops to Taiwan if China tried to invade there?
 

noelpne

Forum Patron
Patron
I understand completely what you are saying but at whose door should this message be placed? Talking is a far more sensible approach than amassing hundreds of thousands of troops and making a land grab and then slowly but surely getting your arse kicked.... Absolute madness ( and sadness ) :(
Lib's are you being disingenuous ?

(Clue: Leader of Russia, surname beginning with P )

But seriously, apportioning blame, how much would you estimate all this is down to it being Ukraine's fault ?
 

noelpne

Forum Patron
Patron
Probably a stupid question. But how come Biden won't send US troops to help Ukraine, but recently he said he will send US troops to Taiwan if China tried to invade there?
Maybe he knows two things.
(1) Putin is a meglamaniac who wants a return to the Soviet Union & has already mentioned about using a "limited" nuclear weapon strategy. And so he's a nuttah who might actually do something like that rather than Loose Face.
(2) China is run by a group of High powered faceless Elites. This could be actually more of a damper to wishing to invade in the face of America.
America imports ( like Europe ) a helluva lot of stuff from Mainland China, and BOTH or even all three depend on Taiwan for the World's supply of semiconductors. TBH it's a lot of Sabre-Rattling there that won't end soon, but will change when the supply of semiconductors AND those precious metals/minerals that make those semiconductors changes. And it will change. When, we don't know.
 

Regardless

Forum Patron
Patron
  • Russian occupied territories to hold “referendums” about sovereignty.
  • Putin - in live tv broadcast- accuses the west of “nuclear blackmail” and declares that all means necessary will be used to defend Russian soil (doubtless including these Ukrainian provinces that will have been declared Russian after the referendums)
  • 300,000 reservists called up to fight in Ukraine.
 
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