What would you do?

Lee Trundle

Forum Patron
Patron
Leave bet

Lay £200k against the horse he needs to win.

Horse wins - he gets £511k less the £200k he layed for a gain of £311k
Horse Loses - he gets £200k from laying the bet, loses the original £5 from the acca.

If he ends up making no money from this, he only has himself to blame
 
OP
J

justinr73

Forum Patron
Patron
Sensible stuff lads.

Not sure if it’s a nice decision to have or not!

The horse is unbeaten. I’d like to think I had the balls to stick it out.
 

jakehake

Preachs PA
Staff member
Patron
Leave bet

Lay £200k against the horse he needs to win.

Horse wins - he gets £511k less the £200k he layed for a gain of £311k
Horse Loses - he gets £200k from laying the bet, loses the original £5 from the acca.

If he ends up making no money from this, he only has himself to blame

looking at the rest of the field it’s 7 horses with odds from 9/1 through to 33/1 so from the £200k

£12.5k - 33/1 - £425k win -£187.5k lay lost = £237.5k
£12.5k - 33/1 - £425k win -£187.5k lay lost = £237.5k
£17.5k - 25/1 - £455k win -£182.5k lay lost = £272.5k
£27k - 16/1 - £459k win -£177k lay lost = £282k
£42k - 11/1 - £504k win - £158k lay lost = £346k
£43.5k - 10/1 - £478.5k - £156.5k lay lost = £322k
£45k - 9/1 - £450k - £155k lay lost = £295k

so effectively unless an outsider wins he beats cashing out(there is probably a better way to split) but it’s marginal how much he gets. The downside is people putting £5 accas on aren’t going to have £200k to lay

it’s such a clear favourite though can see why he’d let it ride but I’d be shitting bricks
 

wld

Forum Patron
Patron
Just goes to prove how shameful the cash out odds always are. Obviously raising such a sum would be exceptionally difficult for anyone but if he’d laid Envoi at an exchange he would have been risking £125,000 to win his cash out offer of £250,000 - if Envoi had won, he’d have got his £510,000 minus his loss on the exchange (so £385,000) but if it had lost he’d have got £250,000 from the exchange.
 

janiejones

I was at Deepdale November 5th 1985
Patron
With the great benefit of hindsight, he made the right decision. I wonder what the bloke from Betfair thinks?

On a lighter note, I'm a massive £20-50 in profit on my Cheltenham bets so far. 😀🤔
 
Top