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General Championship thread

Jürgen Krapp (aka S&R) said:
To add even more context here are the final five fixtures of all the teams below us:

Plymouth - 37 points:
Sheffield United, Middlesbrough, Coventry, Us, Leeds

Maximum points: 52

Luton - 40 points:
Blackburn, Derby, Bristol City, Coventry, West Brom

Maximum points: 55

Cardiff - 42 points:
Stoke, Sheffield United, Oxford, West Brom, Norwich

Maximum points: 57

Derby - 42 points:
Portsmouth, Luton, West Brom, Hull, Stoke

Maximum points: 57

Stoke - 44 points:
Cardiff, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds, Sheffield United, Derby

Maximum points: 59

Hull - 44 points:
Coventry, Swansea, Us, Derby, Portsmouth

Maximum points: 59

Oxford - 45 points:
Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds, Cardiff, Sunderland, Swansea

Maximum points: 60

Portsmouth - 46 points:
Derby, Norwich, Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, Hull

Maximum points: 61

Us - 49 points:
Leeds, QPR, Hull, Plymouth, Bristol

Maximum points: 64

(Points totals correct at the time of writing)

Keep in mind it's impossible for all of those teams to get their maximum due to the number of teams playing eachother. Also note the number of teams that play Leeds, Sheffield United etc
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Most of the bookies seem convinced we’re safe. Our relegation odds now 500/1 with Paddy Power!
(Sky Bet a less convinced 250/1……🫣😂)
 
Jürgen Krapp (aka S&R) said:
Luton - 40 points:
Blackburn, Derby, Bristol City, Coventry, West Brom

Maximum points: 55

Cardiff - 42 points:
Stoke, Sheffield United, Oxford, West Brom, Norwich

Maximum points: 57
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Cardiff have to make up the 7 point gap and 13 goal difference or earn 8 points from those games to get ahead of us.

Or Luton have to make up the 9 point gap and 18 goal difference or earn 10 points from those games to get ahead of us.

Both situations are reliant on us not getting any points from the next 5 games and everyone else picking up points to get ahead of us. The problem for both of them is that if they're not up against a fellow relegation candidate, they're up against a playoff hopeful or an automatic hopeful. I don't think relegation is likely for us
 
Bodney Rewes said:
Cardiff have to make up the 7 point gap and 13 goal difference or earn 8 points from those games to get ahead of us.

Or Luton have to make up the 9 point gap and 18 goal difference or earn 10 points from those games to get ahead of us.

Both situations are reliant on us not getting any points from the next 5 games and everyone else picking up points to get ahead of us. The problem for both of them is that if they're not up against a fellow relegation candidate, they're up against a playoff hopeful or an automatic hopeful. I don't think relegation is likely for us
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You're probably right but we shouldn't even have to be doing these calculations. We're still likely to end up with our lowest points total and possibly lowest position since we returned to the Championship 10 years ago.

So much for 'consolidation then pushing on' - we're going backwards.
 
Bodney Rewes said:
Cardiff have to make up the 7 point gap and 13 goal difference or earn 8 points from those games to get ahead of us.

Or Luton have to make up the 9 point gap and 18 goal difference or earn 10 points from those games to get ahead of us.
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So in the next five games, for the following teams to overtake us, we would need to lose all our matches and:

Plymouth need to win 4 and draw 1.
Luton need to win 3 and draw 1.
Cardiff need to win 3.
Derby need to win 3.
Stoke need to win 2.
Hull need to win 2.
Oxford need to win 2.
Portsmouth need to win 2.
 
OB1 said:
But they’re beating Plymouth and Oxford

That’s why we’re not in a relegation battle. Because there’s 8 teams below us that need to overtake us who are all stopping each other getting near us
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Oh yes, I wasnt being negative ( unusual for me )

I was merely stating facts…

Going into last nights games I wanted Oxford, Plymouth and Portsmouth to lose .
 
Jürgen Krapp (aka S&R) said:
Even if Cardiff and Derby win all their games, the maximum Stoke could get is 53 and that's assuming they win every other game (beating Leeds and Sheffield United in the process)
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Frustrating because had we hung on for another 90 seconds on Tuesday, we would be on 51 and virtually home and dry….
 
Schemer said:
You're probably right but we shouldn't even have to be doing these calculations. We're still likely to end up with our lowest points total and possibly lowest position since we returned to the Championship 10 years ago.

So much for 'consolidation then pushing on' - we're going backwards.
Click to expand...

TBH I'm doing the calculations to demonstrate the unlikely circumstances it would take for us to be relegated at this point. It's not really something I'm panicking about at this moment. Nor will I in the likely event we lose to Leeds.

It's obviously not over until the maths says it's over but the situation requires us to lose consistently and for the worst teams in the league to dramatically improve in form.

I agree with the point that the reality that we're going backwards is depressing enough without worrying about this too.
 
Ando60 said:
Frustrating because had we hung on for another 90 seconds on Tuesday, we would be on 51 and virtually home and dry….
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Could have been effectively home and dry if we beat Stoke on Saturday too.

I suppose there's an argument to be said if we just don't lose against Plymouth and Hull that might well be enough for us to stay up. Although I think we all just want this season to be over with at this point.
 
With goal difference,m were effectively 8 points clear of the relegation zone with 15 points left to play for and teams below us have to play each other so some will drop points, theres a reason why they have around a point per game, its unlikely all the teams below us will get the points to go above us even if we were to lose every game remaining, were pretty much safe but i'd like to get 1 more win just to make sure
 
Mathematically safe from relegation, no - but as others have been saying, it would take a monumental collapse from us and a good run from at least 6 of the 8 teams below us, most of whom are playing each other and are down there for a reason, for the R word to happen now. We are all but there.

Casting my mind back to the start of the season before PH was hired - just 4 summer signings, 2 truly turgid league performances with 5 conceded and 0 scored and a managerial change after both - I would have snapped your hand off to be in this position with 5 to play. I couldn't even pick out 3 teams who we should be finishing above before that shitshow of a start.

A proper pre-season, a decent financial backing for PH/SMc and I can see us doing much better - maybe not immediately play-off contention, but not having these kinds of conversations.

We simply have to score more goals - only 3 teams have scored fewer than PNE this season.

It's a good thing we don't also have to replace both wingback/fullbacks and the keeper to distract us from sorting our strikers out!
 
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