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General Election 2024(or sooner)

J

jakehake

“Morel high warrior”
Staff member
Patron
Joined
Jun 9, 2004
Messages
27,597
Not really fair to have it on the Tory or Labour Thread when it reflects wider than that so figured we may aswell jump the gun ahead of next year

A fairly surprising poll, a sub 100 seat prediction somehow. I thought the votes would spread out amongst minority parties a bit more purely due to tactical voting but maybe not.

Regression Poll August 2023

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
1691578214179.png

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Predicted seat changes by MP​

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats, including the Prime Minister and seventeen other cabinet ministers:

  • Rishi Sunak (Richmond), Prime Minister
  • Oliver Dowden (Hertsmere), Deputy Prime Minister
  • Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North), Defence Secretary
  • Michelle Donelan (Chippenham), Science and Innovation
  • Therese Coffey (Suffolk Coastal), Environment
  • Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield), Energy
  • Mark Harper (Forest of Dean), Transport
  • Mel Stride (Devon Central), Work and Pensions
  • Lucy Frazer (Cambridgeshire South East), Culture
  • Alex Chalk (Cheltenham), Justice
  • Greg Hands (Chelsea and Fulham), Cabinet Office
  • Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry), Northern Ireland
  • Alister Jack (Dumfries and Galloway), Scotland
  • David Davies (Monmouth), Wales
  • Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Leader of the House
  • Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South), Chief Whip
  • John Glen (Salisbury), Chief Secretary
  • Victoria Prentis (Banbury), Attorney General
Click to expand...
 
jakehake said:
Not really fair to have it on the Tory or Labour Thread when it reflects wider than that so figured we may aswell jump the gun ahead of next year

A fairly surprising poll, a sub 100 seat prediction somehow. I thought the votes would spread out amongst minority parties a bit more purely due to tactical voting but maybe not.

Regression Poll August 2023

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
View attachment 15039

View attachment 15038
Click to expand...

Whilst I expect Labour to win, there is no chance on earth Starmer is leading Labour into 461 seats.

Looking forward to hearing manifestos. Both main parties need to be held to account for anything they promise. I don't trust either of them.
 
KeithLard said:
Whilst I expect Labour to win, there is no chance on earth Starmer is leading Labour into 461 seats.

Looking forward to hearing manifestos. Both main parties need to be held to account for anything they promise. I don't trust either of them.
Click to expand...

Theres no effective mechanism for holding them to account under our system other than to wait till the next election. So they can welch on their manifestoes at will and bank on them winning the next one with another pack of lies.
 
It's interesting that both the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire results showed huge drops in the Tory votes meanwhile Labour stayed fairly steady. Labour may have won round a few people but I think both results show the level of negative feeling towards the Conservatives is more the focus than strong, positive feelings towards Labour.

Also there's the local MP issues with the Nadine Dorries stuff that affected the Mid Bedfordshire result.
 
Labour's to lose. They don't need to do anything drastic when it comes to their manifesto. The less said, the better.

I actually think Sunak would have made a decent PM in the time that Theresa May was in No.10, but he's really not what the conservatives, or indeed the country, needed at the time he was made PM.
 
Rodney Bewes said:
It's interesting that both the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire results showed huge drops in the Tory votes meanwhile Labour stayed fairly steady. Labour may have won round a few people but I think both results show the level of negative feeling towards the Conservatives is more the focus than strong, positive feelings towards Labour.

Also there's the local MP issues with the Nadine Dorries stuff that affected the Mid Bedfordshire result.
Click to expand...

I’ve little sympathy for them given that they were stupid enough to vote for her for years….
 
Doyler said:
Labour's to lose. They don't need to do anything drastic when it comes to their manifesto. The less said, the better.

I actually think Sunak would have made a decent PM in the time that Theresa May was in No.10, but he's really not what the conservatives, or indeed the country, needed at the time he was made PM.
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Exactly what they are doing... And in many cases actually agreeing/supporting the tories and putting forward no real policies of their own. If they honour this approach after a Labour GE win then we are pretty much out of the frying pan into the fire.
 
Liberation said:
Exactly what they are doing... And in many cases actually agreeing/supporting the tories and putting forward no real policies of their own. If they honour this approach after a Labour GE win then we are pretty much out of the frying pan into the fire.
Click to expand...

It's just reflective of where they are at in the polls though isn't it? It would show a lack of intelligence to go on a major policy splurge now surely?

I would have thought the campaign is to appeal asa safe pair of hands to as many people as possible and actually gain power in what is a pretty right wing country generally.

It's like Starmer's cryptic comments on the relationship with the EU. I would be unsurprised if rejoining the single market wasn't mentioned once power is gained. Why wouldn't you do that? The economy is crippled and he's bound to have a good majority by then.
 
Durutti said:
It's just reflective of where they are at in the polls though isn't it? It would show a lack of intelligence to go on a major policy splurge now surely?

I would have thought the campaign is to appeal asa safe pair of hands to as many people as possible and actually gain power in what is a pretty right wing country generally.

It's like Starmer's cryptic comments on the relationship with the EU. I would be unsurprised if rejoining the single market wasn't mentioned once power is gained. Why wouldn't you do that? The economy is crippled and he's bound to have a good majority by then.
Click to expand...

I'm a Corbynite... Peddling this twat and his cohorts won't wash,
 
Liberation said:
I'm a Corbynite... Peddling this twat and his cohorts won't wash,
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So was I but I'm not a zealot. Did it work? Did it get us power? Did it get rid the of the Tories?

Corbyn would have been a really brilliant PM...but he had a GE and there was no way he was ever going to get in so is the solution now to just hate every Labour leader from now until the dawn of time for not being as left wing and honest (because none of them ever will be). Strikes me as a bit childish that.
 
Durutti said:
So was I but I'm not a zealot. Did it work? Did it get us power? Did it get rid the of the Tories?

Corbyn would have been a really brilliant PM...but he had a GE and there was no way he was ever going to get in so is the solution now to just hate every Labour leader from now until the dawn of time for not being as left wing and honest (because none of them ever will be). Strikes me as a bit childish that.
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Not childish to me.... Just mindless acceptance. Fill your boots.
 
Liberation said:
Not childish to me.... Just mindless acceptance. Fill your boots.
Click to expand...

Mindless acceptance? From someone who will vote to change the worst government this country has ever had for one that I believe will be a better one compared to you who wants to tick 'none of the above' and maintain this mess? Pot. Kettle. Black.
 
Liberation said:
Not childish to me.... Just mindless acceptance. Fill your boots.
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It’s not about mindless acceptance, it’s about realism. In the current climate a left wing Labour leader is not going to be elected, end of.

So, what do you want? Because with your philosophy we’d have Tory governments for ever more.
 
Were Blair's governments too Right Wing ?
It's arguable that his right of Centre stance captured the votes that kept Labour in power for that record length of time . That's what Starmer's after- the just-right-of-centre voters.
And to hell with any actual Left Wing policies except renationalising the Railways.
---oOo---
What is Labours official stance on Water Authorities, Grammar Schools, (Private aka 'Public' schools face a hike on VAT ) Immigration, Defence?
 
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