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Cheltenham

Double J

Double J

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Dec 20, 2004
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I've backed a whole host of horses. Anyway, anyone reading get your money on 'Prospectus' for the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap next week. 20/1 currently with Bet365, it won't be that price next week. Not one for posting tips but this is a goer. I'd back it soon as well, that price won't be around for long.
 
I thought myself. Ruby Walsh will be confirmed as riding this soon enough, hence the price will crumble. Feeling this will go off as one of the favourites come the day.
 
Double J said:
I thought myself. Ruby Walsh will be confirmed as riding this soon enough, hence the price will crumble. Feeling this will go off as one of the favourites come the day.
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Surely 2 weeks from the festival the odds are there or thereabout's what they will go off at?
 
tom23 said:
Surely 2 weeks from the festival the odds are there or thereabout's what they will go off at?
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This race is a week Thursday, festival starts on Tuesday. Problem is many horses are entered into different races. Take a horse called Vroum Vroum Mag for example, Willie Mullins trained and Rich Rocci owned, entered into 5 different races yet can only run in one.
Hence bigger prices as you've know idea where they are running.

In terms of his horse, won 2/3 starts over hurdles, the loss can be forgiven as it was 6 days after its last run.
Not many know Ruby Walsh has been schooling and has been booked to ride him at the Festival, that isn't public knowledge as yet.
Once it is, you have punters who just back Ruby Walsh so price will crash anyway. And Ruby isn't going ride something outside of Willies yard unless it's got a chance.
 
Double J said:
This race is a week Thursday, festival starts on Tuesday. Problem is many horses are entered into different races. Take a horse called Vroum Vroum Mag for example, Willie Mullins trained and Rich Rocci owned, entered into 5 different races yet can only run in one.
Hence bigger prices as you've know idea where they are running.

In terms of his horse, won 2/3 starts over hurdles, the loss can be forgiven as it was 6 days after its last run.
Not many know Ruby Walsh has been schooling and has been booked to ride him at the Festival, that isn't public knowledge as yet.
Once it is, you have punters who just back Ruby Walsh so price will crash anyway. And Ruby isn't going ride something outside of Willies yard unless it's got a chance.
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Cheers mate, makes sense now.

I've backed it and a few of the lads have too!
 
If you want pure value, try and find the best price on 'Special Tiara' in the Champion Chase market w/o Douvan.

Douvan is an absolute monster and won't be beaten, but the market w/o represents serious value. Those at the top of the market will be running in different races, such as Fox Norton (maybe) and Un De Sceaux who is favourite for the Ryanair.

If you can find 5s each way in the w/o Douvan market get your morgatges on it, serious value for money in a race that will probably have about 7 runners. Guaranteed to finish minimum third in the race, only Gods Own could finish ahead, providing Fox Norton goes to the Ryanair. Which is why take the 3 places in the w/o market incase Fox Norton doesn't.

Value city.
 
Double J said:
I've backed a whole host of horses. Anyway, anyone reading get your money on 'Prospectus' for the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap next week. 20/1 currently with Bet365, it won't be that price next week. Not one for posting tips but this is a goer. I'd back it soon as well, that price won't be around for long.
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If you needed anymore encouragement it's just been cut into 16s, and will go shorter again.
 
Double J said:
If you needed anymore encouragement it's just been cut into 16s, and will go shorter again.
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probably on the strength of me and my Cheltenham group chat getting on it, 15 lads all with £10 e/w might shift the ante post!
 
Its into 14's on sky bet,I'm already on Domperignon Du Lys in that race,might have a few quid on it though.

Have had a few bets myself,with skybet being non runner no bet for a while now,I'm hoping Neon wolf goes in the supreme because I'm on him at 10's.
 
jersey white said:
Its into 14's on sky bet,I'm already on Domperignon Du Lys in that race,might have a few quid on it though.

Have had a few bets myself,with skybet being non runner no bet for a while now,I'm hoping Neon wolf goes in the supreme because I'm on him at 10's.
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FWIW I was also on Domperignon Du Lys until yesterday. This tip is probably as reliable as it gets though, hence the change in opinion.
I'm absolutely battered if Neon Wolf goes the Supreme Route, all over him in many multiples for the Neptune which was the original target.

I've got Don Poli at 40s E/W on the Exchange for the Gold Cup (I'm a sucker and a Don Poli fan)
I've got Mite Bite at 14s for RSA
Djakadam at 12s for Gold Cup
Sizing John 33s for Gold Cup.
Neon Wolf at 12s for Neptune

And one I'm particularly excited about this week now, I chucked a courtesy few quid on Moon Racer at 40s for the Champion Hurdle just in case it dodged the supreme, signs are it will be. Got various doubles and trebles as well.
 
Double J said:
FWIW I was also on Domperignon Du Lys until yesterday. This tip is probably as reliable as it gets though, hence the change in opinion.
I'm absolutely battered if Neon Wolf goes the Supreme Route, all over him in many multiples for the Neptune which was the original target.

I've got Don Poli at 40s E/W on the Exchange for the Gold Cup (I'm a sucker and a Don Poli fan)
I've got Mite Bite at 14s for RSA
Djakadam at 12s for Gold Cup
Sizing John 33s for Gold Cup.
Neon Wolf at 12s for Neptune

And one I'm particularly excited about this week now, I chucked a courtesy few quid on Moon Racer at 40s for the Champion Hurdle just in case it dodged the supreme, signs are it will be. Got various doubles and trebles as well.
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Why a Earth would you do three in the gold cup? only one can win the others being either 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds just dead money . Anyhow cuecards got that race all day long.
 
sussexrob said:
Why a Earth would you do three in the gold cup? only one can win the others being either 1/4 or 1/5 of the odds just dead money . Anyhow cuecards got that race all day long.
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All about value and understanding the market.

Heavily invested into Djakadam at 12s for example. A horse that's finished second twice in the Gold Cup, in a shoddy field, 3/1 for the place, value. Now without looking he's probably 4s at this current time.

If come the day i really don't fancy it, I'll just go on the exchange, do the math and lay Djakadam at a competitive price. But only enough to leave me a profit whether it goes on to lose - place - or win. I took 12s, I'll lay at just over 4s.

Same with Don Poli, backed at 40s, i could lay at 20s, again for profit.

Sizing John i backed at 33s, now a genuine 10/1 shot.

I've only gambled on horses for about 18 months now, and keep the stakes genuinely reasonable. It's a complete puzzle as to why people don't back more than one, especially if the horse is value at the price it's currently at.

Also, don't think Cue Card has a chance. It's only form this season was beating a lame Coneygree. His second in the King George wasn't great either. The subsequent winner went on to get beat, and the field in behind are decent handicap horses at best. That said, this is probably the worst Gold Cup field in years.

I won't be backing them, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of JPs win, Minella Rocco or More Of That.
 
Double J said:
All about value and understanding the market.

Heavily invested into Djakadam at 12s for example. A horse that's finished second twice in the Gold Cup, in a shoddy field, 3/1 for the place, value. Now without looking he's probably 4s at this current time.

If come the day i really don't fancy it, I'll just go on the exchange, do the math and lay Djakadam at a competitive price. But only enough to leave me a profit whether it goes on to lose - place - or win. I took 12s, I'll lay at just over 4s.

Same with Don Poli, backed at 40s, i could lay at 20s, again for profit.

Sizing John i backed at 33s, now a genuine 10/1 shot.

I've only gambled on horses for about 18 months now, and keep the stakes genuinely reasonable. It's a complete puzzle as to why people don't back more than one, especially if the horse is value at the price it's currently at.

Also, don't think Cue Card has a chance. It's only form this season was beating a lame Coneygree. His second in the King George wasn't great either. The subsequent winner went on to get beat, and the field in behind are decent handicap horses at best. That said, this is probably the worst Gold Cup field in years.

I won't be backing them, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of JPs win, Minella Rocco or More Of That.
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That will be because the bookies will keep the money if your horse does not run take the price you run the risk. (unless they have a promotion insurance in place)
 
tom23 said:
It's always NRNB in the big races like Gold Cup
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Sorry Tom have to disagree not all big races Grand national just one that has not always been .Although the main bookmakers in the last few years seem to follow suit with NRNB.
 
I've simply bet on horses that guaranteed to go for that race, only thing stopping it would be injury.

I took 33s on Sizing John because it should be going for the Ryanair. Unfortunately his owners are complete fools and are obsessed with the Gold Cup. I took the gamble it would run a good race in the Irish Gold Cup and go to the Cheltenham one. Turns out I was right.
These are the same owners that turned 'Master Minded' one of the finest 2 mile chasers, into a 'Gold Cup horse' safe to say it didn't work.
 
tom23 said:
Don Poli out the gold cup with an injury.
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Not great news for me. Need to get my decision correct whether to lay what I've already backed or stick with it.

My mind will be made up if Empire Of Dirt is rerouted for the Gold Cup instead. Elliot wanted this originally but was told no. With Don Poli out Gigginstown could change their minds.
 
Also got tipped off about 'My Painter' in the 7.30 at Dundalk. Been backed in from 25s to 8s. I only managed to get 16s.

Stick it in a reverse forecast with 'Gold Eliza'.

This is from the same tipster as the who gave 'Prospectus' in the Fred Winter. Keep stakes small.
 
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