FOR SALE

[Oh Hughie Costello]

I keep re-reading this post and coming to the conclusion that I don't understand it. It seems to me you have much more info/understanding than I do on this!

1. When you say "debt" do you mean money owed, or are you including shares?
2. 3/4 years from breaking even. Really? How did you calculate that - it's really good news if true but I don't see it.
3. Surely the 90 million is a portfolio amount, not a loss, until it is written off as a debt which will never be repaid?
4. What's the 1 billlion pound portfolio worth now and how do you know that?

What I can clearly see in the accounts is that the amortisation of player contracts is reducing.

I think the next set of accounts will make very interesting reading, as we will be able to compare two "post-COVID" years with higher season ticket sales etc.

I have a copy of Hemmings's will (perfectly legal to obtain it) so that helps to join the dots together on what little information the club releases. I could get a copy of the Conway Trust and the Trevor Hemmings Discretionary Trust (which would allow me to find out some information which will soon be in the public domain sooner) but that would require me to falsely claim to be a grandchild of Hemmings - I'm not but if you knew his past you'd soon see how easy it could be to claim to be a long lost relative.

The term "debt" is used but it could also be said that Hemmings has invested £77 million of his own money into the club - the reason it shows as "debt" is that there is a chance it could be recouped.

I calculated 3/4 years to break even based on the cost cutting which is ongoing. Next year's accounts won't show a record loss - that's a good thing - but only because the budget has been cut - a bad thing for the club to be able to complete. I estimate that the budget for 2023/24 will be reduced by £2.5 million to around £9 million external funding. That equates to 6 fewer senior pros in the squad next year. We might loan in the maximum amount allowed as loans are generally cheaper but O'Neill, Cross-Adair, Slater and Seary etc will be making up the numbers on the bench most weeks.

Cut the budget by £2.5 million each year and you get to break even in 3/4 years. But we'll be in League one by then which has different financial rules to the Championship - so that's another reason why we're not giving out long term contracts.

The current "debt" will only be written off if there's agreement between the shareholders of Wordon LTD - those shareholders will only be made public in April when the next company accounts are due. It's likely to be Hemmings children who were given his surname at birth and Revitt - percentage wise I predict that Revitt holds 50%. Even if she isn't a shareholder the budget cuts will still happen.

The billion pound portfolio was only ever an estimate in the media - given how Hemmings over estimated the value of the Preston NE it might not have been this much. When he died it was divided up - the details went into trust and not the public domain. Although some details about how much cash and which properties Revitt got are in the will.
However, Wordon LTD will ultimately fund the club until it is sold or placed into administration. It's unlikely to be placed into administration whilst the Hemmings children own at least 50% of Wordon to "honour" their fathers legacy.

How much the estate is worth now is probably even more difficult to calculate because it has been set up to provide for Hemmings family for life so is being spent and invested in numerous ways. One of his children might become a billionaire in their own right, they certainly have the foundation for that, but the club will have changed ownership long before then.

 

[KeithLard]

It's not that speculative. We'll never break even in the Championship, that's obvious. And we'll never stay up if we continually cut the wage bill towards the break-even point without improving and investing in any other part of the club to compensate - which we're not doing, we're cutting or freezing costs everywhere. It's just a matter of time.

Such a reset wouldn't be a good experience for the fans, except perhaps those fans who fetishise lower-league football and perhaps secretly wish we'd never left it.

Well, what is better

A) Championship football, constantly on the back foot, getting beat at home, apathetic, uninspiring football whilst nicking away wins to stay up but never a chance at the Top 6 and no reasonable cup run or effort.

B) League One football, winning 50-75% games at home/away, including being on the front foot on occasion and competing for Top 6 but not guaranteed promotion by any stretch

C) League Two football, having completely reset the club via administration, points deductions, new ownership. Fighting for promotion in League Two against smaller clubs.

Up to everybody what they think is better, but I'd take C in the hope (not guaranteed) that a new journey would begin.

 

[Oh Hughie Costello]

Well, what is better

A) Championship football, constantly on the back foot, getting beat at home, apathetic, uninspiring football whilst nicking away wins to stay up but never a chance at the Top 6 and no reasonable cup run or effort.

B) League One football, winning 50-75% games at home/away, including being on the front foot on occasion and competing for Top 6 but not guaranteed promotion by any stretch

C) League Two football, having completely reset the club via administration, points deductions, new ownership. Fighting for promotion in League Two against smaller clubs.

Up to everybody what they think is better, but I'd take C in the hope (not guaranteed) that a new journey would begin.

Option C is effectively the Baxi take over and I think most fans would go back to 1994 and do that journey until Billy Davies left in 2006 in a heartbeat.

1995/96, Saville scoring hat tricks left right and centre and the Town End absolutely rocking is still my favourite season of all time. This current one is up their with the worst. EIGHT goals at home all season is pathetic and half of them have been in defeats.

 

[buckshawwhite]

I think its because Sky charge absolutely insane prices to watch their content, BT and prime aren't much better but Sky have gone off the rails.

I saw something recently that stated that if someone wanted to watch every televised Premier League game of this season via legal means and via the various suppliers, it would cost £600 + PA... Madness!. I often ponder turning my back on the professional game & sticking to grass roots for the football fix

 

[billymac]

I wonder how debt free we are?

Leicester chairman relieves club of £194m debt

Leicester City's chairman Aiyawatt Srivaddhanaprabha relieves the club of its outstanding debts of £194m to parent company King Power International.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Oh Hughie Costello]

I saw something recently that stated that if someone wanted to watch every televised Premier League game of this season via legal means and via the various suppliers, it would cost £600 + PA... Madness!. I often ponder turning my back on the professional game & sticking to grass roots for the football fix

Non-league attendances have certainly shot up in the past decade and it's not hard to see why.

At Brig you can become a "member" for £250 a year. That gets you entry into all home games (including cup and friendlies. Discount on pints (which you can then drink watching the match) plus food at every match, which is of a far better standard than heathcotes). A match in hospitality once a year plus discounted travel on the team coach to away games. The players and management also speak to the fans and live in the real world. Also, you've a much better chance of seeing some actual goals.

 

[Final Stand]

As a North Ender do you think we will ever move away from financial and legal discussions on this forum and have a forum dominated by the exciting “brand” of football we are playing ?

 

[Liberation]

The article uses Transfermarkt valuations, which are not reliable.

For last season, to get to their £31.21m squad value, they used these numbers:

Alan Browne	£3,150,000.00​
Sepp van den Berg	£2,700,000.00​
Daniel Johnson	£1,980,000.00​
Ben Whiteman	£1,800,000.00​
Ryan Ledson	£1,800,000.00​
Josh Murphy	£1,800,000.00​
Tom Barkhuizen	£1,800,000.00​
Emil Riis	£1,800,000.00​
Patrick Bauer	£1,620,000.00​
Daniel Iversen	£1,350,000.00​
Andrew Hughes	£1,080,000.00​
Ali McCann	£1,080,000.00​
Izzy Brown	£1,080,000.00​
Brad Potts	£900,000.00​
Scott Sinclair	£900,000.00​
Sean Maguire	£900,000.00​
Greg Cunningham	£810,000.00​
Declan Rudd	£720,000.00​
Liam Lindsay	£720,000.00​
Josh Earl	£720,000.00​
Joe Rafferty	£450,000.00​
Cameron Archer	£450,000.00​
Bambo Diaby	£428,000.00​
Matthew Olosunde	£360,000.00​
Ched Evans	£270,000.00​
Connor Ripley	£225,000.00​
Paul Huntington	£225,000.00​
Ethan Walker	£90,000.00​
TOTAL:	£31,208,000.00​

It did look a load of bollocks........ Thanks for proving it

 

[Oh Hughie Costello]

As a North Ender do you think we will ever move away from financial and legal discussions on this forum and have a forum dominated by the exciting “brand” of football we are playing ?

Not on this forum - it's noticeably quieter on here after back to back wins than it is after back to back defeats.

 

[KeithLard]

Not on this forum - it's noticeably quieter on here after back to back wins than it is after back to back defeats.

Thats human nature but also when we win we all know it's a temporary thing. We've been proven right repeatedly year after year.

I have no interest in going to games until new ownership. I have two young kids and they are my priority at weekends. Deepdale right now is a waste of a weekend

 

[jonboy]

At the moment the Hemmings & associates are bound by the Conway Trust which states the club must be sold at "market value". If the Huddersfield sale goes ahead for £1 then that changes the "market value" of the club so theoretically makes the sale easier.

The issue of the £77 million "debt" remains an issue though. The club is 3/4 years from "breaking even" and that is only possible in League One so that figure rises by the day. But as well as the Conway Trust there is also the Trevor Hemmings Discretionary Trust, which has been set up to provide for Hemmings children and grandchildren. Effectively from June 2024 Preston NE is diverting funds from this trust and to wipe off what will by that point be £90 million out of a portfolio which is nowhere near a £1 billion anymore won't sit well with many.

Bradford Park Avenue turn a profit on attendances of around 400. This is mainly due to astute commercial use of their facilities 7 days a week. Sounds too difficult, so let's not have a well stocked club shop, social club/fans facilities, decent catering etc, community use of our facilities infact hardly any commercial activity at all eh?

 

[Oh Hughie Costello]

Bradford Park Avenue turn a profit on attendances of around 400. This is mainly due to astute commercial use of their facilities 7 days a week. Sounds too difficult, so let's not have a well stocked club shop, social club/fans facilities, decent catering etc, community use of our facilities infact hardly any commercial activity at all eh?

That's what happens when people get used to signing seven figure cheques; a profit of £50,000 doesn't seem worth the effort.

Ironically it was the plastic pitch allowing the club to increase its community use of the facilities that helped to keep the club ticking over until the BAXI takeover.

 

[Dreyfuss]

The article uses Transfermarkt valuations, which are not reliable.

For last season, to get to their £31.21m squad value, they used these numbers:

Alan Browne	£3,150,000.00​
Sepp van den Berg	£2,700,000.00​
Daniel Johnson	£1,980,000.00​
Ben Whiteman	£1,800,000.00​
Ryan Ledson	£1,800,000.00​
Josh Murphy	£1,800,000.00​
Tom Barkhuizen	£1,800,000.00​
Emil Riis	£1,800,000.00​
Patrick Bauer	£1,620,000.00​
Daniel Iversen	£1,350,000.00​
Andrew Hughes	£1,080,000.00​
Ali McCann	£1,080,000.00​
Izzy Brown	£1,080,000.00​
Brad Potts	£900,000.00​
Scott Sinclair	£900,000.00​
Sean Maguire	£900,000.00​
Greg Cunningham	£810,000.00​
Declan Rudd	£720,000.00​
Liam Lindsay	£720,000.00​
Josh Earl	£720,000.00​
Joe Rafferty	£450,000.00​
Cameron Archer	£450,000.00​
Bambo Diaby	£428,000.00​
Matthew Olosunde	£360,000.00​
Ched Evans	£270,000.00​
Connor Ripley	£225,000.00​
Paul Huntington	£225,000.00​
Ethan Walker	£90,000.00​
TOTAL:	£31,208,000.00​

They left off Josh Harrop. That's another 4m-5m at least.

 

[FootballcrazyP_]

Alan Browne	£0​
Sepp van den Berg	£0​
Daniel Johnson	£0​
Ben Whiteman	£0​
Ryan Ledson	£0​
Josh Murphy	£0​
Tom Barkhuizen	£0​
Emil Riis	£0​
Patrick Bauer	£0​
Daniel Iversen	£0​
Andrew Hughes	£0​
Ali McCann	£0​
Izzy Brown	£0​
Brad Potts	£0​
Scott Sinclair	£0​
Sean Maguire	£0​
Greg Cunningham	£0​
Declan Rudd	£0​
Liam Lindsay	£0​
Josh Earl	£0​
Joe Rafferty	£0​
Cameron Archer	£0​
Bambo Diaby	£0​
Matthew Olosunde	£0​
Ched Evans	£0​
Connor Ripley	£0​
Paul Huntington	£0​
Ethan Walker	£0​
TOTAL:	£0​

Edited to show under Ridsdale reality

 

[Thracia]

They left off Josh Harrop. That's another 4m-5m at least.

They hilariously have our squad this year worth even more, although they again ignore the fact we don't own loan players (or players worth anything like these valuations):

Liam Delap	£7,000,000​
Freddie Woodman	£6,000,000​
Emil Riis	£4,000,000​
Troy Parrott	£4,000,000​
Alan Browne	£3,200,000​
Ben Whiteman	£3,000,000​
Jordan Storey	£2,800,000​
Josh Onomah	£2,500,000​
Álvaro Fernandez	£2,500,000​
Ryan Ledson	£2,000,000​
Brad Potts	£1,500,000​
Patrick Bauer	£1,200,000​
Robbie Brady	£1,000,000​
Daniel Johnson	£1,000,000​
Andrew Hughes	£1,000,000​
Liam Lindsay	£1,000,000​
Ben Woodburn	£1,000,000​
Greg Cunningham	£350,000​
Bambo Diaby	£350,000​
Matthew Olosunde	£300,000​
Ched Evans	£250,000​
David Cornell	£250,000​
Thomas Cannon	-​
James Pradic	-​
TOTAL:	£46,200,000​

 

[TheWarehouse]

What I don’t understand is the debt vs share issues? Are they saying that the share issues are a loan? If so that doesn’t seem right? Can anyone please explain?

 

[Thracia]

What I don’t understand is the debt vs share issues? Are they saying that the share issues are a loan? If so that doesn’t seem right? Can anyone please explain?

The shares issued every few months at a premium price are just a mechanism to distribute funding from the PNE holding company to its subsidiaries, including the club. The funding itself arrives in the PNE holding company as loans.

 

[Alpine White]

The shares issued every few months at a premium price are just a mechanism to distribute funding from the PNE holding company to its subsidiaries, including the club. The funding itself arrives in the PNE holding company as loans.

Could someone not buy the club without buying the holding company?

If they acquired the shares they would thus not take on the debt.

So are the shares not being used to secure part of the debt? I mean that the ownership could sell the club for say 20 million for the shares not the 70 million of the debt of the holding company?

 

[Alpine White]

Bradford Park Avenue turn a profit on attendances of around 400. This is mainly due to astute commercial use of their facilities 7 days a week. Sounds too difficult, so let's not have a well stocked club shop, social club/fans facilities, decent catering etc, community use of our facilities infact hardly any commercial activity at all eh?

All fair enough but it’s not a comparable situation. Is there a similar model in the Championship?

 

[Alpine White]

I have a copy of Hemmings's will (perfectly legal to obtain it) so that helps to join the dots together on what little information the club releases. I could get a copy of the Conway Trust and the Trevor Hemmings Discretionary Trust (which would allow me to find out some information which will soon be in the public domain sooner) but that would require me to falsely claim to be a grandchild of Hemmings - I'm not but if you knew his past you'd soon see how easy it could be to claim to be a long lost relative.

The term "debt" is used but it could also be said that Hemmings has invested £77 million of his own money into the club - the reason it shows as "debt" is that there is a chance it could be recouped.

I calculated 3/4 years to break even based on the cost cutting which is ongoing. Next year's accounts won't show a record loss - that's a good thing - but only because the budget has been cut - a bad thing for the club to be able to complete. I estimate that the budget for 2023/24 will be reduced by £2.5 million to around £9 million external funding. That equates to 6 fewer senior pros in the squad next year. We might loan in the maximum amount allowed as loans are generally cheaper but O'Neill, Cross-Adair, Slater and Seary etc will be making up the numbers on the bench most weeks.

Cut the budget by £2.5 million each year and you get to break even in 3/4 years. But we'll be in League one by then which has different financial rules to the Championship - so that's another reason why we're not giving out long term contracts.

The current "debt" will only be written off if there's agreement between the shareholders of Wordon LTD - those shareholders will only be made public in April when the next company accounts are due. It's likely to be Hemmings children who were given his surname at birth and Revitt - percentage wise I predict that Revitt holds 50%. Even if she isn't a shareholder the budget cuts will still happen.

The billion pound portfolio was only ever an estimate in the media - given how Hemmings over estimated the value of the Preston NE it might not have been this much. When he died it was divided up - the details went into trust and not the public domain. Although some details about how much cash and which properties Revitt got are in the will.
However, Wordon LTD will ultimately fund the club until it is sold or placed into administration. It's unlikely to be placed into administration whilst the Hemmings children own at least 50% of Wordon to "honour" their fathers legacy.

How much the estate is worth now is probably even more difficult to calculate because it has been set up to provide for Hemmings family for life so is being spent and invested in numerous ways. One of his children might become a billionaire in their own right, they certainly have the foundation for that, but the club will have changed ownership long before then.

Thanks. Interesting read.

If the Championship funding does go up to the speculated 20 million per club per year it’s possible that the club could survive in it without incurring more losses than in L1.

Overall though it feels like we are waiting for a change of ownership which I’m guessing will be Ridsdales last task to prepare before his retirement.